Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (22-6, 7 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet featherweight contender Cub Swanson (25-8, 11 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 128 on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting previews, predictions and picks now.
Frankie Edgar isn’t taking any time off to sulk about losing a guaranteed title shot. Less than two months after getting demolished by The Uppercut from Hell Pt. 2 - and losing a guaranteed title shot in the process - the former lightweight will jump right back into the cage against featherweight contender Cub Swanson.
The matchup serves as the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 128 in Atlantic City, and Edgar will have a ton of crowd support as a New Jersey native. It also takes this card from good to great, as it’s a high-stakes scrap featuring two consistently exciting fighters. Not only are they top-5 dudes, but they’re both coming off bad losses to Brian Ortega. No doubt they’re eager to move on with a big win.
But should Edgar be fighting so soon after being literally launched off his feet? And can Swanson take advantage to earn the biggest win of his career? Oddsmakers have set The Answer as a big favorite, which means you can get a great underdog price on Swanson. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds and break down your best betting options.
UUFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Frankie Edgar -222
Cub Swanson +172
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -318, under +253
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Edgar 3.58 / Swanson 4.21
Accuracy: Edgar 40.1% / Swanson 50.63%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Edgar 2.18 / Swanson 3.23
Defense: Edgar 70.39% / Swanson 62.74%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Edgar 2.56 / Swanson 1.25
Takedown accuracy: Edgar 35.26% / Swanson 52.57%
Takedowns defended: Edgar 65.63% / Swanson 57.14%
Submission average: Edgar 0.38 / Swanson 0.55
Matchup Preview
On the feet, this is a clash of two strikes who are superb in wildly different ways. Edgar is one of the best technical boxers in the division, using active footwork to create angles and stick opponents with multi-punch combinations. Swanson is much more funky, using off-beat rhythm and creativity to bomb away with long-range strikers.
The big question here is whether Edgar will have as much success with his takedowns as he did in their first fight. For five rounds, the Toms River native was able to put Swanson on his back and keep him there, controlling position and punishing him with GNP. In the last round, he finally broke Cub open and clamped on a neck crank, forcing Cub to tap.
If Swanson can keep this fight standing, it becomes a 50-50 affair. Though Edgar has great striking defense, he always seems to take a monster shot or two. And after being knocked out for the first time - and coming back so soon afterwards - puts him at risk of getting the lights turned out again. But if he lands takedowns early, this could be a repeat of their first fight.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision at +225
This is a risky play, but we like the value you’re getting here for two reasons. First, we’re seriously wondering if Edgar has had enough time to recover. Second, if Edgar spends a lot of time grappling with Swanson, we could very well find another sub - six of Swanson’s eight losses have come by submission.
UFC Odds Pick: Swanson to win at +172
Another ‘dog play. While Edgar should absolutely be the favorite considering how he dominated the first match, we saw Michael Bisping hop right back into the cage after a bad knockout and get knocked out again for his eagerness. Swanson has a much better chance of winning than the odds suggest.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on UFC Fight Night 128 takes place on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
