Lightweight veterans Jim Miller (28-11, 4 KOs, 14 SUBs) and Dan Hooker (15-7, 7 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 129 on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting previews, predictions and picks now.
Jim Miller will make UFC history in his own backyard. This Saturday, the longtime vet will fight for 29th time for the promotion, tying Michael Bisping for the most UFC appearances. While it’s an accomplishment to be proud of, the mileage of 10 years of cagefighting appears to be catching up to him, as he’s lost three straight fights heading into a matchup against Dan Hooker in Atlantic City.
Hooker could earn the biggest victory of his career, earning his shot at Miller on the strength of back-to-back wins. In his last outing, the New Zealand native became the first fighter to finish Marc Diakiese, stopping the highly-touted prospect with a nifty guillotine joke. Prior to that, “The Hangman” starched veteran Ross Pearson with a brutal knee.
Can Miller get back into win column in front of a hometown crowd? Or will Hooker treat the respected vet like a stepping stone into bigger matchups? Most importantly for all you gamblers, what should you be betting on here? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jim Miller +285
Dan Hooker -345
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -210 / +180
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Miller 2.75 / Hooker 3.71
Accuracy: Miller 40.02% / Hooker 42.25%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Miller 2.84 / Hooker 4.39
Defense: Miller 60.04% / Hooker 56.98%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Miller 1.63/ Hooker 0.58
Takedown accuracy: Miller 40.48% / Hooker 42.86%
Takedowns defended: Miller 47.89% / Hooker 77.55%
Submission average: Miller 1.87 / Hooker 0.39
Matchup Breakdown
Miller has lost a few steps since his years as a perennial contender around five years ago. It’s no surprise, as he has logged more than 5 hours of cage time - the top mark in UFC lightweight history. In that time, he’s met a who’s who of lightweights, locking horns with guys like Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, Donald Cerrone, Michael Chiesa and Diego Sanchez. Though the losses are piling up, Miller still made competitive showings against top opponents in Dustin Poirier, Anthony Pettis and Francisco Trinaldo in his most recent outings.
Though he has always been more dangerous as a grappler than a striker, Miller will need to work a long-range game against Hooker. The Kiwi is a tall lightweight who loves to use his long limbs to punish guys in the clinch, and his 77% takedown defense does not bode well for an average wrestler like Miller.
As an old dog still learning new tricks, Miller has developed a solid kicking attack in recent years, using his legs to set up a more consistent striking attack. He will need every inch of leg reach against a guy four inches taller than him, and take advantage of the fact that Hooker eats a lot of significant strikes marching forward.
UFC Odds Pick: Hooker to win at -345
Though Hooker is Miller’s “easiest” opponent in four fights, it’s hard to put money on a guy whose physical skills are waning. This isn’t a great style matchup for the hometown guy, as he’ll have to get in close to do damage, playing right into Hooker’s clinch. Like any Miller fight, it should be competitive, but he’s fighting a younger fighter who can take away his best weapons.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on UFC Fight Night 128 takes place on Saturday, April 21, 2018 at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
