Welterweight contender Demian Maia (25-8, 3 KOs, 12 SUBs) will meet the rising Kamaru Usman (12-1, 1 SUB) at UFC Fight Night 129 on Saturday, May 19, at the Movistar Arena in Santiago, Chile. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and check out our previews, picks and predictions now.
Any welterweight hoping to be considered a title contender first has to go through Demian Maia. The 40-year old Brazilian has long been one of the best at 170, testing his peers with one of the strongest grapple-wrestling games in the division. Long one of the sport’s honorable “good guys”, Maia is also one of the last true specialists in the sport.
In a quickly evolving MMA landscape, one-discipline fighters like Maia are going the way of the dinosaur. Being one of the best jiu-jitsu guys ever to fight in the UFC got him pretty far, but his one-dimensional style finally caught up to him in his last two fights. In a title shot against Tyron Woodley, Maia could do little but shoot for unsuccessful takedowns. The same thing happened in a followup fight against Colby Covington.
This Saturday, Maia meets another young wrestler in Kamaru Usman. A quickly rising fighter with a gift for starting beef, Usman gets the opportunity to break into the title mix against the No. 5 welterweight. Maia will try to avoid the first three-fight losing streak of his career.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup, along with your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Demian Maia +305
Kamaru Usman -365
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Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed p/m: Maia 1.83 / Usman 3.94
Accuracy: Maia 43.49% / Usman 54.44%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Maia 1.9 / Usman 1.57
Defense: Maia 63.62% / Usman 62.61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Maia 2.68 / Usman 4.99
Takedown accuracy: Maia 26.91% / Usman 47.46%
Takedowns defended: Maia 65.63% / Usman 0%
Submission average: Maia 1.07 / Usman 0.36
Matchup Breakdown
The crazy thing here is that Maia is an even bigger ‘dog against Usman than he was against Woodley. In fact, the only other time he’s faced odds this great was when he squared off against a prime Silva, hitting as low as +600 in the sportsbooks.
There are a few factors that go into Maia’s price. He carried a seven-fight winning streak into the T-Wood fight, looking better than ever. Against Covington, the Brazilian actually closed as a slight favorite. Both those fights exposed Maia in the same way - he was unable to land takedowns against younger, more athletic fighters and was forced to use his subpar kickboxing.
While the jury’s still out on how good Usman can be, he has the exact same tools as both Covington and Woodley. “The Nigerian Nightmare” is younger, faster, more athletic and a powerhouse wrestler. Covington proved that you only need to be a decent striker to ougtun Maia, and Usman is already that.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Usman to win at -365
There really is no other play if you’re picking a winner. Usman is experienced enough to not get caught up in Maia’s crafty bag of tricks, and he’s definitely got the tools to keep the fight standing. Usman’s price is a safe play as a parlay booster.
UFC Odds Pick: Usman by KO/TKO
If you’re looking for a better payout, Usman by KO isn’t a bad pick. Usman might only have 1 KO in 13 pro fights, but he’s starting to find his striking power. He’s one fight removed from a single punch knockout of Sergio Moraes, and will likely be standing with Maia for long periods of time. This is risky, since Maia does have a chin on him, but Usman can crack.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 129 takes place on Saturday, May 19, at the Movistar Arena in Santiago, Chile. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
