Tom Breese is favored against Dan Kelly at UFC Fight Night 130 on Sunday night in Liverpool, England. This event is one of four fights on the FS1 portion of the preliminary card. Kelly is 13-3 in his career, while Breese is 10-1 in his career. There are total of six fights on the main card at UFC Fight Night 130, with the headliner a bout between Stephen Thompson and Darren Till. There are also a total of six fights on the preliminary card with four on FS1 and two on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Kelly and Breese and UFC predictions.
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Dan Kelly (13-3, 6-3 UFC)
Kelly came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has six wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Luke Zachrich by submission, Patrick Walsh by unanimous decision, Steve Montgomery by unanimous decision, Antonio Carlos Junior by TKO, Chris Camozzi by unanimous decision, and Rashad Evans by split decision. His three losses were against Sam Alvey by TKO, Derek Brunson by KO, and Elias Theodorou by unanimous decision. Kelly has been a pro since 2006 and has five wins by submission and three by TKO/KO.
He has won four of his last six fights and has four first round finishes.
Kelly said this to news.com.au about his upcoming fight with Breese, “A win means I’m still alive, a loss means I’m probably done and I want to keep going for a little while longer, so I want to win. This is the last fight in my current contact and it hasn’t been renewed yet, so this is the last roll of the dice and it’s important. It’s a must win from my own perspective as well. The last few fights haven’t been good for me, so I want to get back in the winner’s circle. I didn’t care who, I just wanted to fight. It’s going to be a difficult one, its southpaw versus southpaw and he’s been out for two years, but he’s a real up-and-coming talent for British MMA. He’s very good at boxing, very good at dictating range and he’s not too bad off his back, either. So we’ll see. If I can get the fight where I want it, I’ll be fine.”
Tom Breese (10-1, 3-1 UFC)
Breese came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and has three wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Luiz Dutra Jr. by TKO, Cathal Pendred by TKO, and Keita Nakamura by unanimous decision while losing to Sean Strickland by split decision. Breese has been a pro since 2010 and has six wins by submission and three wins by TKO/KO. He has six first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Kelly 3.69 / Breese 3.61
Accuracy: Kelly 39% / Breese 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Kelly 4.57/ Breese 2.65
Defense: Kelly 62% / Breese 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Kelly 1.93/ Breese 0.00
Accuracy: Kelly 34% / Breese 0%
Takedowns defended: Kelly 78% / Breese 72%
Submission average: Kelly 0.3/ Breese 0.4
UFC Predictions
This is a huge fight for Kelly if he expects to stay in the UFC. Breese has proven to be a good fighter, but is he good enough to be laying nearly 4-1? The value is definitely on Kelly in this fight and I will take him at the big price.
UFC Fight Night 130 takes place on Sunday, May 27, 2018 at the Echo Arena in Liverpool, England, featuring Stephen Thompson vs. Darren Till. There are six fights on the main card on FS1 and six on the preliminary card, with four on FS1 and two on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (FS1)
Welterweight - Darren Till -125 vs. Stephen Thompson
Welterweight - Neil Magny -564 vs. Craig White
Featherweight - Arnold Allen -270 vs. Mads Burnell
Featherweight - Jason Knight -151 vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Bantamweight - Manny Bermudez -284 vs. Davey Grant
Middleweight - Eric Spicely -195 vs. Darren Stewart
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Welterweight - Nordine Taleb -353 vs. Claudio Silva
Middleweight - Tom Breese -351 vs. Dan Kelly
Welterweight - Carlo Pedersoli Jr. -185 vs. Brad Scott
Women’s Flyweight - Molly McCann -245 vs. Gillian Robertson
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Middleweight - Elias Theodorou -421 vs. Trevor Smith
Women’s Bantamweight - Gina Mazany -120 vs. Lina Lansberg
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