Welterweight prospect Sage Northcutt (10-2, 4 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet Zak Ottow (16-5, 3 KOs, 10 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 133 on Saturday, July 14, 2018 at the CenturyLink Arena in Boise, Idaho. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 pm ET.
Will Sage Northcutt ever turn the corner and fulfill his UFC prophecy? Three years ago, he was a 19-year old uber-prospect making his UFC debut on the strength of generational athleticism, a world championship Karate background and the appearance of a Ken doll. Seven UFC fights later, he’s now more of a curiosity.
This Saturday, “Super” Sage will look for his third straight victory when he meets submission specialist Zak Ottow at UFC Fight Night 133 in Boise. While Northcutt has shown flashes of the potential that cause Dana White to drool over him, he’s also lost to mid-card talent in Bryan Barberena and Mickey Gall. Zak Ottow is one of the lower-tier fighters at 170 pounds, but at this point we still don’t know what to expect from the golden boy.
That sort of inconsistency makes any Northcutt bout difficult to bet on: one minute he looks like an all-world killer, the next he’s tapping to a choke that’s not even fully locked in. So how should you bet this fight? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Sage Northcutt -145
Zak Ottow +115
Over/under coming soon!
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed p/m: Northcutt 3.66 / Ottow 3.42
Accuracy: Northcutt 51.37% / Ottow 39.95%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Northcutt 2.11 / Ottow 2.71
Defense: Northcutt 58.82% / Ottow 59.98%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Northcutt 1.81 / Ottow 0.59
Takedown accuracy: Northcutt 32% / Ottow 33.33%
Takedowns defended Northcutt 35% / Ottow 66.67%
Submission average: Northcutt 0.45 / Ottow 0.3
Matchup Preview
Sean Shelby has hit the reset button when it comes to Northcutt’s competition - clearly he was fighting guys above his level when he hit the scene as the next big thing. Since losing to Mickey Gall, who was 1-0 at the time, Northcutt’s opponents have been dialed down, and he’s responded with two wins over Michel Quinones and Thibault Gouti. The win over Gouti was not an easy one, as Sage was unable to stop the takedowns and even got dropped in the first round from a flurry of punches.
Ottow should be encouraged watching that fight, as Northcutt showed huge weaknesses on the feet and in his defensive wrestling. While Ottow is neither a heavy hitter or a powerhouse wrestler, he can do a little bit of everything. Obviously, you don’t need to be GSP to double-leg the kid, nor do you need to be Anderson Silva to deck him flush.
What Northcutt has is his freak athleticism, some flashy strikes and excellent reactive takedowns. That’s enough to beat guys middle class guys like Ottow, but Sage is defensively so porous he’s always at risk of losing rounds for getting popped or taken down. When he’s in rhythm and pressuring, he looks like a beast, but opponents are getting wise to pressuring him and putting him on the mat.
Oddsmakers are smart not to make Ottow a bigger underdog here, as he has a habit of going to split decision. Plus, he’s solid on the mat and we still don’t know how much Sage has improved his submission defense.
UFC Odds Pick: Northcutt to win at -145
Northcutt has found a permanent home at Team Alpha Male, and training alongside consummate professionals should help his overall game. The Sacramento fight team is famous for churning out excellent wrestlers, so if Northcutt has been paying attention at all, he should have shored up some defensive holes in that area. That, plus his speed and explosiveness, should be enough to carry him past Ottow. The price is solid as a straight bet.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight UFC Fight Night 133 takes place on Saturday, July 14, 2018 at the CenturyLink Arena in Boise, Idaho. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 pm ET.
