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Former light heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (25-10, 20 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet action fighter Anthony Smith (29-13, 15 KOs 11 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 134 on Sunday, July 22 in Hamburg, Germany. The card airs live on FS1 starting 11 am ET.
Shogun Rua’s last stand comes this Sunday in Germany. The 36-year old Hall of Famer will look for his fourth straight win against Anthony Smith, and a win could actually put the Brazilian in title contention. That’s impressive for a guy that looked finished three years ago, with so many fighting miles on the odometer. However, a loss would likely end any chance for Rua to even be considered a contender, putting him one step closer to the retirement that’s coming sooner than later.
Smith takes this fight on just a few weeks notice, as Shogun’s original opponent Volkan Oezdemir was pulled off the card for a future matchup with Alexander Gustafsson. “Lionheart” will also be making his second fight at 205. Should he beat Shogun, not only will he have the scalp of a living legend, Smith could instantly become a player in the division.
Does Rua beat back father time a little longer and turn away the young Lionheart, or does the American find new life in a new weight class? There’s a few solid betting options here, courtesy of the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, so let’s break it all down.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Anthony Smith -235
Shogun Rua +185
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +240 / -320
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed p/m: Rua 3.75 / Smith 3.15
Accuracy: Rua 51.3% / Smith 44.69%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Rua 2.48 / Smith 3.97
Defense: Rua 56.47% / Smith 46.08%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rua 2.17 / Smith 0.51
Takedown accuracy: Rua 48.39% / Smith 27.27%
Takedowns defended: Rua 45.74% / Smith 48.28%
Submission average: Rua 0.87 / Smith 0.85
Matchup Preview
Even with the short notice, Smith is a huge favorite against the creaky Rua. Moving up from middleweight class after a knockout loss to Thiago Santos, Smith needed less than a minute to ice former champion Rashad Evans. He should find the road much tougher against another former champion and legend in Rua.
The 36-year old Shogun is a shell of the thrasher we all fondly remember from the Pride era. Gone is his killer aggressiveness and savage physicality. Multiple knee surgeries and numerous bloody wars have sapped him of much of his physical talent. What’s left is a tough warrior who can still hit hard and gut out close decisions against mid-card talent.
On this current three-fight win streak, Shogun has had numerous struggles against mid-card talent in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Corey Anderson and Gian Villante. That he was still able to pull out the victories speaks to his veteran guile. Still, he will have to deal with an aggressive, dynamic kickboxer in Smith.
The Brazilian’s best bet is to take Smith down - the American has issues with his wrestling and get-ups. But while Shogun has taken more to wrestling in his twilight years, it’s clear that grappling isn’t what got him to legend status in the first place. Rua’s takedowns are sloppy, but it doesn’t take a Khabib to get Smith to the mat.
UFC Odds Pick: Smith to win at -235
Rua’s mini-resurgence has been nice, but you can’t trust him for a minute against a guy like Smith. The younger man is far too active for Rua to contain, throwing hard punches and kicks at all level and ranges. Rua simply withstand that kind of assault any more.
UFC Odds Pick: Smith inside the distance -150
Go with this prop if you want a better payout. While Rua is too tough for his own good, Smith is the type of younger, aggressive fighter that’s a nightmare matchup for the Brazilian. With Smith looking to build off his finish of a former champion, he’ll be motivated to finish off yet another legend.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 134 takes place on Sunday, July 22 in Hamburg, Germany. The card airs live on FS1 starting 11 am ET.
