No. 10 light heavyweight Misha Cirkunov (13-4, 4 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet No. 13 Patrick Cummins (10-5, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 138 on Saturday, October 27, 2018 at the Moncton Events Centre in New Brunswick, Canada. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 pm ET.
In 2016, Misha Cirkunov was 4-0 in the UFC and one of the light heavyweight division’s brightest prospects. This Saturday, he comes into his matchup with Patrick Cummins with two straight losses. Perhaps we shouldn’t judge Cirkunov’s recent slide too harshly, as his losses came against Volkan Oezdemir and Glover Teixeira. Still, they showed that the Latvian has a ways to go if he wants to be considered a contender at 205.
Beating Cummins would be a solid win. “Durkin” has become a mainstay mid-tier fighter in the division, going 6-5 with notable wins over Gian Villante, Jan Blachowicz and Rafael Cavalcante. Considering that his losses have come against Daniel Cormier, OSP, Lil ‘Nog and Corey Anderson, it seems clear that the 37-year old is destined to be card fodder for up-and-comers and aging legends. Being a gatekeeper is nothing to be ashamed of though.
This should be a good, hard scrap between two dudes with high-level grappling. While the impact won’t make much of a ripple in the division, remember that these guys are both in the top 15. Let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best options. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is available as well for those who don’t want to commit to a pick right now.
UFC Fight Night 138 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Misha Cirkunov -512
Patrick Cummins +362
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision +180 / -240
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Cirkunov 4.53 / Cummins 4.28
Accuracy: Cirkunov 51.88% / Cummins 50.16%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Cirkunov 2.63 / Cummins 3.34
Defense: Cirkunov 66.24% / Cummins 55.7%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Cirkunov 4.44 / Cummins 4.62
Takedown accuracy: Cirkunov 56.25% / Cummins 42.5%
Takedowns defended: Cirkunov 50% / Cummins 30%
Submission average: Cirkunov 1.48 / Cummins 0.14
Bet on UFC Fight Night 138 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Peep those stats: these are two aggressive fighters. Both Cirkunov and Cummins average more than four strikes landed per minute, along with four takedowns per 15. If they aren’t striking, they’re shooting. However, they handle their business differently in each phase.
Cirkunov’s boxing has drastically improved since he joined the UFC as a grappler. Making his debut as a dangerous grappler, he stay poised and outboxed a hulk in Ion Cutelaba and held his own in a loss to Glover Teixeira. Outside of a fatal charge against Volkan Oezdemir, the 31-year old has looked solid on the feet, showing a crisp jab and navigating distance well. In this regard, he should do much better in the striking ranges than Cummins, who uses his short-range boxing style to mainly get in for takedowns.
The lockups are going to be interesting here. Cummins is a two-time D1 All-American and a US National Team member, so we can assume that his wrestling is elite. If he can power Cirkunov to the ground, than his top control should be effective against somebody who isn’t used to being on his back. If he’s left to his standup, this becomes a much tougher fight for “Durkin”.
UFC Odds Pick: Cirkunov to win at -512
Despite Cirkunov’s recent losses, his overall talent is greater than Durkin’s - especially if he keeps improving his kickboxing at the same rate. As the younger fighter whose counter-wrestling should serve as an efficient foil to Cummins’ more traditional wrestling, Cirkunov has more ways to win here.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision at +180
Cirkunov’s price is ridiculous, so we’re offering this solid prop bet. This is a three-round fight, and both guys have the durability and endurance to go the distance. If this turns into a grappling match, there’s a solid chance this goes to the cards.
UFC Fight Night 138 Odds
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 138 takes place on on Saturday, October 27, 2018 at the Moncton Events Centre in New Brunswick, Canada. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 pm ET.
