Middleweight vets Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira (13-6, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs) and Ian Heinisch (11-1, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet at UFC Fight Night 140 on Saturday, November 17, 2018 at the Parque Roca Arena in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10pm ET.
Tom Breese is out, and Ian Heinisch is in. The 27-year old Brit suffered yet another injury in a once-promising career filled with them, but that paves the way for a guy that was clearly headed for the UFC in the first place. A LFC vet who scored a quick knockout on DWTNCS in his last outing, Heinisch getting called up was not a question of if, but when.
Though Ferreira isn’t really a known quantity, the 33-year old already has 13 octagon appearances under his belt, notably facing fighters like Jorge Masvidal, Elias Theodorou, Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos. He’s one of those guys that’s carved out a place for himself in the best MMA organization in the world, and he’s proven a solid, mid-tier fighter. Currently on a 5-1 run, “Mutante” provides a stern test for the young Breese.
These aren’t the best circumstances for Heinisch to be making his octagon debut, but replacing injured fighters is honestly how some of the best fighters get into the big show. This isn’t gonna be an easy scrap, but it’s definitely not an unwinnable one.
Take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, and be sure to check in on fight night for live UFC betting. Now let’s break down the matchup along with your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cezar Ferreira -175 vs. Ian Heinisch +135
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -175 / +135
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Ferreira 1.84 / Heinisch --
Accuracy: Ferreira 42.18% / Heinisch --
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Ferreira 1.96 / Heinisch --
Defense:: Ferreira 57.39% / Heinisch --
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ferreira 2.73 / Heinisch --
Takedown accuracy: Ferreira 63.89% / Heinisch --
Takedowns defended: Ferreira 93.33% / Heinisch --
Submission average: Ferreira 0.59 / Heinisch --
Bet on UFC Fight Night 140 Odds
Though Ferreira possesses quick hands as a southpaw, he’s been noticeably more cautious since getting getting knocked out in back-to-back fights at the hands of Sam Alvey and Jorge Masvidal. A naturally strong athlete, Mutante’s reactive shots are very good, and on the mat foes have to deal with a black belt in BJJ. His takedown numbers are excellent: 2.73 takedowns at a 63% clip.
Heinisch is the smaller man here, but it says a lot that he’s not a massive underdog considering that nobody knows who he is and he’s scrapping on late notice. This is not some raw some prospect, but a polished dude who can get it done with submissions or dynamic kickboxing. The competition he’s faced so far isn’t even close to the level of the Ferreira’s opponents, but let’s not forget that he’s been pretty dominant in respected regional promotions.
In this matchup, Heinisch wants to avoid grappling with Ferreira at all costs. On the feet, he can take care of Ferreira’s low output and vulnerability in the clinch. That’s far easier said then done, since he will have to muscle a guy that’s two inches taller than him with country boy strength.
UFC Odds Pick: Ferreira to win at -175
You know how we feel about wrestlers here: they’re usually the guys who will grind out the win. Heinisch needs to be fighting other prelim guys and not dangerous midcard vets right now. The price on Ferreira is high, but it’s definitely playable.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
