Heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem (43-17, 21 KOs, 17 SUBs) welcomes undefeated Sergey Pavlovich (12-0, 9 KOs) to the octagon at UFC Fight Night 141 on Saturday, November 24, 2018 at the Cadillac Arena in Beijing, China. The card airs live on UFC Fight Pass.
Alistair Overeem might be the No. 6 heavyweight in the UFC, but he’s dangerously close to becoming irrelevant in the divisional contender ranks. At 38, The Demolition Man is clearly past his prime, with a chin that seems to shatter upon impact. After two straight losses by knockout, the former title challenger now finds himself as the co-main on a Fight Pass card in China. That’s a steep drop for a guy that was headlining pay-per-view cards just two years ago.
This Saturday, Overeem serves as the welcoming party for FNG champ Sergey Pavlovich, a giant Russian knockout artist with 9 KOs in 12 career victories. Pavlovich hasn’t fought since November 2017, when he knocked out Kirill Sidelnikov. His debut is a tough one, as he’s fighting a future Hall of Famer whose held the Strikeforce, Dream and K-1 kickboxing titles, and came within a few punches of claiming the UFC belt.
It’s a little questionable to see such a well-regarded name like Overeem fighting on such a low-visibility card. When it comes to delivering exciting fights, he’s one of the most consistent in terms of kill-or-be-killed: only two of his past 10 fights have gone to the cards, and his kickboxing base delivers some of the most violent, powerful strikes in the sport today.
Let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, which should be interesting considering how fragile yet dangerous Overeem is. Don’t forget about live UFC betting, which lets you hedge your bets during the night and gives you the opportunity to take advantage of the action unfolding on screen.
UFC Fight Night 141 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem -101
Sergey Pavlovich -133
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +250 / -350
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Overeem 3.53 / Pavlovich
Accuracy: Overeem 61.04% / Pavlovich
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Overeem 1.93 / Pavlovich
Defense: Overeem 61.22% / Pavlovich
Grappling Stats
Takedown accuracy: Overeem 1.30 / Pavlovich
Takedown defense: Overeem 62.79% / Pavlovich
Takedowns defended: Overeem 72.37% / Pavlovich
Submission average: Overeem 1.03 / Pavlovich
Bet on UFC Fight Night 141 Odds at BookMaker.eu
We all know who Overeem is at this point: a stellar kickboxer with a glass chin. He can knock people out with all eight striking points, and do it from any distance. Take a look at his knockout record and you’ll see victims finished with knees, elbows, punches and kicks. Choosing to stand with this man is a good way to get put to sleep, though these days he can only take about half as much damage as he can dish out.
Pavlovich came into the sport as a Greco Roman wrestler, transitioning into MMA in 2014. However, he’s looked like a natural, winning all 12 of his fights and stopping nine opponents via TKO. It has to be mentioned that most of the guys he’s fought have been scrubs, and every time he’s fought a veteran it’s gone the distance - like when he met fellow prospect Mikhail Mokhnatkin. While the KO ratio might suggest an aggressive headhunter, the reality here is that Pavlovich is extremely conservative, choosing to explode into fight-ending counters instead of forcing the issue.
It’ll be interesting to see if he tries and take Overeem down, as the Dutchman has been extremely vulnerable on his back against ground-and-pound artists. But his takedown defense is generally solid, which sets up a probable kickboxing match. It’s a toss-up in that scenario.
UFC Odds Pick: Pavlovich to win at -133
While Overeem still has the skills to be the best heavyweight in the world, his body just isn’t holding up anymore. Pavlovich isn’t a guy that can be bullied, and that’s really how Overeem wins all of his fights these days. We just have no faith in The Demolition Man’s cardio and chin anymore, which is why we’re going with the Russian.
UFC Fight Night 141 Odds
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 141 takes place on Saturday, November 24, 2018 at the Cadillac Arena in Beijing, China. The card airs live on UFC Fight Pass.
