JJ Aldrich is favored against Lauren Mueller at UFC Fight Night 161 on Saturday, October 12 in Tampa, Florida. This event is one of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Aldrich is 7-3 in her career, while Mueller is 5-2 in her career. There are a total of six fights on the main card on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night 161, with the headliner a bout between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card, all on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Aldrich and Mueller and UFC predictions.
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JJ Aldrich (7-3, 3-2 UFC)
Aldrich came into the UFC with a record of 4-1 and she has three wins and two losses in the UFC. She defeated Chan-Mi Jeon by unanimous decision, Danielle Taylor by unanimous decision, and Polyana Viana by unanimous decision; while losing to Juliana Lima by unanimous decision and Maycee Barber by TKO. Aldrich has been a pro since 2014 and she has two wins by TKO/KO. She has two first round finishes.
Lauren Mueller (5-2, 1-2 UFC)
Mueller came into the UFC with a record of 4-0 and she has one win and two losses in the UFC. She defeated Shana Dobson by unanimous decision; while losing to Yanan Wu by arm bar submission and Poliana Botelho by unanimous decision. Mueller has been a pro since 2015 and she has one win by TKO. She has one first round finish.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Aldrich 3.65/ Mueller 4.22
Striking Accuracy: Aldrich 38% / Mueller 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Aldrich 4.22/ Mueller 3.41
Defense: Aldrich 61% / Mueller 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aldrich 0.22/ Mueller 0.61
Takedown Accuracy: Aldrich 16% / Mueller 40%
Takedowns defended: Aldrich 58% / Mueller 75%
Submission average: Aldrich 0.0 / Mueller 0.0
UFC Predictions
Aldrich has the edge in experience and she has a half inch reach advantage in this fight. Mueller looked good in a win over Shana Dobson but then lost to Wu Yanan and Poliana Botelho. Aldrich is simply the better fighter and even in her loss to Barber she looked good before getting caught. Aldrich is a -185 favorite in this fight which is reasonable considering that Mueller has only won one of her three UFC fights and doesn’t have much experience in the UFC. The price is a little bit high, but I think Aldrich is the clear choice to win this fight. Both Aldrich and Mueller have few wins by knockout and none by submission so most likely this fight will go the distance. I will also play the rounds to go over the total.
UFC Fight Night 161 takes place at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida on Saturday, October 12, with six fights on the main card on ESPN+ headlined by Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Michelle Waterson and eight preliminary bouts, all on ESPN+.
Main Card (ESPN+)
Women's Strawweight - Joanna Jedrzejczyk -485 vs. Michelle Waterson
Featherweight - Kron Gracie -180 vs. Cub Swanson
Women's Strawweight - Mackenzie Dern -126 vs. Amanda Ribas
Lightweight - Luis Peña -160 vs. Matt Frevola
Middleweight - Eryk Anders -160 vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Lightweight - Thomas Gifford vs. Mike Davis
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
Welterweight - Niko Price -168 vs. James Vick
Light Heavyweight - Ryan Spann -145 vs. Devin Clark
Flyweight - Deiveson Figueiredo -215 vs. Tim Elliott
Welterweight - Max Griffin -150 vs. Alex Morono
Welterweight - Miguel Baeza -210 vs. Hector Aldana
Middleweight - Marvin Vettori -300 vs. Andrew Sanchez
Women's Flyweight - JJ Aldrich -185 vs. Lauren Mueller
Bantamweight - Marlon Vera -170 vs. Andre Ewell
How to Bet
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