Vicente Luque is favored against Belal Muhammad at UFC Fight Night 206 on Saturday, April 16 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 14 fights on ESPN+. Luque is 21-7-1 in his career, while Muhammad is 20-3 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night 206. Let’s look at the bout between Luque and Muhammad and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night 206 takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, April 16 with 14 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night 206: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 Betting
Vicente Luque (21-7-1, 14-3 UFC)
Luque came into the UFC with a record of 7-4-1 and he has 14 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Mike Perry by split decision, Niko Price by TKO, Randy Brown by KO, Tyron Woodley by D’Arce choke submission, and Michael Chiesa by D’Arce choke submission; while losing to Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision. Luque has been a pro since 2009 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and eight by submission. He has 13 first round finishes.
Luque said this to sportskeeda.com about his upcoming fight against Muhammad, “Yeah, I mean Belal has definitely improved a lot. He has a great winning streak right now. He has developed his game a lot. I mean, it impressed me how he controlled [Stephen] Thompson in his last fight. So, that’s one of the fights that I’ve really been watching to kind of get – His timing, his movement, it has changed since we fought. And I think this is a new fight. I don’t take much of our first fight. I think that was a quick knockout, so there isn’t much I can take from it. And that’s what I’m getting ready for. I know he’s a tough opponent, and I got to take him very seriously.”
Belal Muhammad (20-3, 11-3 UFC)
Muhammad came into the UFC with a record of 9-0 and he has 11 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has six wins and no losses. He defeated Curtis Millender by unanimous decision, Takashi Sato by rear-naked choke submission, Lyman Good by unanimous decision, Dhiego Lima by unanimous decision, Demian Maia by unanimous decision, and Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision. Muhammad’s last loss in his career was against Geoff Neal by unanimous decision in January of 2019. Muhammad has been a pro since 2012 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has one first round finish.
Muhammad said this to clutchpoints.com about his upcoming fight against Luque, “I don’t even really consider it a rematch. I consider it a whole new fight because I’m a whole new fighter. That’s why I wanted this fight, to prove that I’m a whole new fighter and a different fighter. It’s going to be a whole different fight. So obviously I gain something from this fight. If I go out there and finish [Luque], beat him, there’s nothing that can deny me as well. Even when I beat [Demian] Maia, they said he’s old. When I beat ‘Wonder boy,’ everybody was saying he was old. Now I’m fighting a guy that knocked me out, a guy that’s young, a guy that’s knocking everybody out, finishing everybody, I go out and finish him — what excuse can you give now?”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Luque 5.65 / Muhammad 4.55
Striking Accuracy: Luque 54% / Muhammad 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Luque 5.67/ Muhammad 3.61
Defense: Luque 52% / Muhammad 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Luque 0.64 / Muhammad 2.20
Takedown Accuracy: Luque 50% / Muhammad 33%
Takedowns defended: Luque 64% / Muhammad 91%
Submission average: Luque 1.0 / Muhammad 0.2
UFC Picks
Luque is listed as almost a 2-1 favorite in this fight and that may be too high. These two fought back in 2016, but I think you throw that fight out, as it was a quick knockout and both fighters are different now. It is interesting to note that they both fought Stephen Thompson and Muhammad won a unanimous decision, while Luque lost. Luque is all about the finish, as 19 of his 21 wins have come by finish. Muhammad is almost the opposite, with just five of his 20 wins coming by finish. If you look at the rounds, oddsmakers expect this fight to be a long one. The rounds are listed at 4.5 and the over is -150. That tells me that oddsmakers expect this fight to go to a decision and if that is the case, then you have to like Muhammad. I don’t take many underdogs in UFC betting, but Muhammad looks to have a decent chance to win this one and we get solid plus money.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 4/16 | Belal Muhammad | +150 |
| Vicente Luque | -190 |
| 4/16 | Jesse Ronson | -111 |
| Rafa Garcia | -119 |
| 4/16 | TJ Laramie | +307 |
| Pat Sabatini | -425 |
| 4/16 | Yanan Wu | +307 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | -425 |
| 4/16 | Chris Barnett | +190 |
| Martin Buday | -245 |
| 4/16 | Sam Hughes | +176 |
| Istela Nunes | -225 |
| 4/16 | Kevin Croom | +150 |
| Heili Alateng | -190 |
| 4/16 | Brandon Jenkins | +365 |
| Drakkar Klose | -525 |
| 4/16 | Caio Borralho | +110 |
| Gadzhi Omargadzhiev | -140 |
| 4/16 | Lina Lansberg | +292 |
| Pannie Kianzad | -400 |
| 4/16 | Trey Ogden | -165 |
| Jordan Leavitt | +131 |
| 4/16 | Andre Fialho | +154 |
| Miguel Baeza | -195 |
| 4/16 | Devin Clark | -200 |
| William Knight | +158 |
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