Heavyweight submission specialist Aleksei Oleinik (59-14, 8 KOs, 46 SUBs) will meet prospect Chris Daukaus (10-3, 9 KOs) at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Blaydes on Saturday, February 20, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET. In the main event, heavyweight contender Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (14-2, 10 KOs) will meet knockout artist Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (24-7, 19 KOs, 1 SUB). In this article, we’re taking a closer look at the Oleinik-Daukaus UFC odds at the online sportsbook and breaking down your best UFC betting picks.
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The Stakes
Heavyweight Aleksei Oleinik is an interesting heavyweight gatekeeper. Beating him secures a top-10 ranking, as the Russian is literally sitting in the 10-spot coming into this scrap. But he’s also one of the most unique grapplers the UFC has ever seen - a guy with 46 submission finishes to his name, and the only man to secure the elusive Ezekiel choke inside the octagon. While he’ll never be a contender, the 43-year old can still put in work by turning away young up-and-comers. That’ll be the case this Saturday, when Chris Daukaus will look to leapfrog the Russian.
Aleksei Oleinik (59-14, 8 KOs, 46 SUBs)
In 13 octagon appearances, Oleinik has put together a more-than-respectable 8-5 record. A few notable scalps on his resume include Travis Browne, Mark Hunt and former champion Fabricio Werdum. We also need to bring up some of the gnarly subs he’s pulled off: scarf holds, Ezekiel chokes and neck cranks. That’s not something you find everyday and tells you that his opponents better protect their necks.
Obviously, the more Oleinik can grapple, the better it goes for him. He doesn’t get enough credit as a submission artist, but one only needs to look at how quickly he finished guys like Hunt and Browne to know how slick he can be. Despite being worlds better on the mat than on the feet, Oleinik isn’t completely lost in the striking exchanges - utilizing a sambo background to get into grappling range. Where he falters is his gas tank: Oleinik cannot go hard for more than a single round, and by the end of round 2 he looks every bit of his 43 years. Every minute that goes by tilts a fight further in his opponent’s favor.
Chris Daukaus (10-3, 9 KOs)
We don’t know too much about Daukaus yet, except that he’s one of those fat guys that hit hard - we all love those dudes. Coming out of the CFFC regional circuit, the 31-year old pulled together a solid 8-3 record against local yokels en route to signing with the UFC. In his debut, Daukaus needed less than five minutes to score a knockout against Parker Porter, then followed it up with a sub-minute KO of Rodrigo Nascimiento Ferreira. Know who those guys are? Don’t feel bad, nobody else does either. But two first-round KOs as a heavyweight was good enough to earn a matchup with a ranked opponent.
Obviously, Daukaus has killshot power, but it’s not clear what else he can bring. His cardio is suspect, as and so is his overall technique. You obviously don’t want to brawl with this dude, but he’s got to prove that he can handle more skilled fighters.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oleinik 3.50 / Daukaus 9.58
Striking accuracy: Oleinik 50% / Daukaus 62%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oleinik 3.52 / Daukaus 3.45
Striking defense: Oleinik 44% / Daukaus 67%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Oleinik 2.43 / Daukaus 0
Takedown accuracy: Oleinik 48% / Daukaus 0%
Takedown defense: Oleinik 33% / Daukaus 0%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Oleinik 2.4 / Daukaus 0.0
UFC Odds Pick: Oleinik to win at +150
We can see why Daukaus would be the favorite - Oleinik has been on the wrong end of some bad knockouts. But we’ve also seen him get the better of fighters who are much, much better than Oleinik. Daukaus has never faced a grappler of Oleinik’s caliber, and the veteran brings a savviness that will make a difference in the fight. We love the underdog odds you can get on the Russian and would be willing to put a sizable bet on him.
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