UFC Fight Night - Alex Caceres vs. Seung Woo Choi Odds

Seung Woo Choi is heavily favored against Alex Caceres at UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori on Saturday, October 23 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 14 fights on ESP+. Caceres is 18-12 in his career, while Choi is 10-3 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori. Let’s look at the bout between Caceres and Choi and UFC predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori takes place at UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, October 23 with 14 fights all on ESPN+.

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori Betting

Alex Caceres (18-12, 13-10 UFC)

Caceres came into the UFC with a record of 5-2 and he has 13 wins and 10 losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Martín Bravo by split decision, Steven Peterson by unanimous decision, Chase Hooper by unanimous decision, Austin Springer by rear-naked choke submission, and Kevin Croom by unanimous decision; while losing to Kron Gracie by rear-naked choke submission. Caceres has been a pro since 2008 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has three first round finishes.

Seung Woo Choi (10-3, 3-2 UFC)

Choi came into the UFC with a record of 7-1 and he has three wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Suman Mokhtarian by unanimous decision, Youssef Zalal by unanimous decision, and Julian Erosa by TKO; while losing to Movsar Evloev by unanimous decision and Gavin Tucker by rear-naked choke submission. Choi has been a pro since 2015 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and four by decision. He has four first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Caceres 4.10 / Choi 3.31

Striking Accuracy: Caceres 50% / Choi 41%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Caceres 2.82 / Choi 2.55

Defense: Caceres 65% / Choi 46%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Caceres 0.57 / Choi 1.00

Takedown Accuracy: Caceres 78% / Choi 57%

Takedowns defended: Caceres 64% / Choi 66%

Submission average: Caceres 0.8 / Choi 0.0

UFC Picks

I am definitely surprised at the price on this fight, as I don’t think Choi is worthy of being a 3-1 favorite. I look at both of these fighters and I don’t see that much of a difference.

Neither has faced much top competition of late and each has been getting wins. I know that Choi is the younger fighter but it is not like Caceres is over the hill at 33 years old. Caceres is likely to try and get this fight to the mat and there is no reason he shouldn’t be able to do that. Choi is nothing special at takedown defense, so Caceres should be trying to win this fight on the ground.

One thing we do know is that this fight should be filled with plenty of action. Caceres is always looking for the finish and sometimes he leaves himself open which results in getting caught. Choi has plenty of finishing power so Caceres will have to pick his spots carefully. Choi should be very careful about going to the ground in this fight, as that is where Caceres would have the edge.

I think two plays are worth making in this fight. I will take Caceres simply as a value play. I just don’t see Choi being that much better than Caceres and we are getting a nice plus price on Caceres. I also think the rounds are worth playing. These two fighters have plenty of finishing power and it seems likely that this fight will not go the distance. We can get +140 on this fight not going to a decision and that gives us some serious value. I’ll go with Caceres and the rounds to go under and look for at least a split to give us a profit and a potential sweep for a big payout.

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori Card & Odds

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