Welterweight striker Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (22-9, 12 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet Jamaica’s Randy “Rude Boy” Brown (12-4, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane on Saturday, February 27, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET. In the main event, heavyweight knockout artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1, 10 KOs) will meet undefeated prospect Cyril Gane (7-0, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs) in a high-stakes divisional matchup. Let’s take a closer look at the Oliveira vs. Brown odds and break down your best UFC betting picks in the online sportsbook.
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The Stakes
If you’re looking for a welterweight fight that’ll cause significant ripples throughout the division....well, this ain’t it chief. Neither Oliveira or Brown are ranked in the top 15, and both are coming off losses. But this is one of those matchups that should be a lot of fun. Cowboy Oliveira is a reliably entertaining fighter with dynamic Muay Thai, while Randy Brown is one of those big, strong athletes that always seems just a big statement or two away from breaking out. Both are respectable names in a loaded division, and the winner would get a nice feather in his cap.
Alex Oliveira (22-9, 12 KOs, 5 SUBs)
Though Cowboy is just 32, he’s already put in some serious work since making his UFC debut in 2015. After a loss to Gilbert Burns (which has aged very nicely), Oliviera put together three straight wins over mid-level competition that resulted in a “Cowboy vs. Cowboy'' standoff with Donald Cerrone. While Oliveira was soundly spanked, he found the motivation to rebound with four straight wins - one of which came against Bellator champion Will Brooks. However, it’s been an up and down ride since then, as losses to Gunnar Nelson, Mike Perry and Shavkat Rakhmonov show that he’s likely hit his ceiling as a midcard fodder.
Anyone that tries to stand with Cowboy is going to be tested. He has the utmost confidence in his striking, largely due to his natural power and battle-tested Muay Thai skills. At his best, Oliveira physically bullies his opponents and pummels them head to thigh. But when squaring off against foes who will eagerly return fire, Oliveira tends to wilt. His gas tank is an issue, as is his subpar grappling defense.
Randy Brown (12-4, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs)
The UFC signed Brown as a raw talent back in 2018. It’s not hard to see what they liked: Rude Boy is a huge, 6’3” welterweight with excellent athleticism and exciting finishing ability. Matchmakers did well to bring him along slowly, letting him cut his teeth against fringe fighters. As he leveled up, Brown had his ups and downs, losing to good fighters against Belal Muhammed and Niko Price, but finding wins against decent ones like Mickey Gall, Bryan Barberena and Warlley Alves. The last two victories were particularly impressive as it was clear that Brown finally was able to develop a style that wasn’t reliant on just his physical skill.
If Brown can further learn to use his massive frame and length to pick apart his opponents, we could be looking at a top 10 fighter. He’s getting more comfortable as a kickboxer, and he won’t have to worry about grappling against Oliveira.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oliveira 2.87 / Brown 3.67
Striking accuracy: Oliveira 50% / Brown 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oliveira 2.18 / Brown 2.80
Striking defense: Oliveira 48% / Brown 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Oliveira 2.41 / Brown 1.00
Takedown accuracy: Oliveira 37% / Brown 46%
Takedown defense: Oliveira 63% / Brown 71%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Oliveira 0.6 / Brown 0.6
UFC Picks
The UFC odds opened with Oliveira as a +143 underdog, with Brown as a sizable -180 favorite. We think this is a fair price on Brown, who is too big to be bullied by Oliveira. Brown’s size, length and distance control will make the difference, and it should be a clear win for Rude Boy.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane Card & Odds
Heavyweight - Jairzinho Rozenstruik +211 vs. Ciryl Gane -260
Light Heavyweight - Nikita Krylov +280 vs. Magomed Ankalaev -356
Light Heavyweight - Alonzo Menifield -112 vs. William Knight -112
Lightweight - Thiago Moisés +162 vs. Alexander Hernandez -196
Women's Bantamweight - Alexis Davis +170 vs. Sabina Mazo -260
Light Heavyweight - Maxim Grishin +154 vs. Dustin Jacoby -186
Featherweight - Kevin Croom +170 vs. Alex Caceres -206
Women's Flyweight - Montana De La Rosa +118 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva -142
Bantamweight - Vince Cachero +134 vs. Ronnie Lawrence -162
Bantamweight - Pedro Munhoz +125 vs. Jimmie Rivera -150
Women's Strawweight - Ashley Yoder +287 vs. Angela Hill -366
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