Muhammad Mokaev is favored against Alex Perez at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev on Saturday, March 2 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 12 fights on ESPN+. Perez is 24-7 in his career, including 6-3 in the UFC, while Mokaev is 11-0 in his career, including 5-0 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev. Let’s look at the bout between Perez and Mokaev and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev takes place at the UFC Apex in Mexico Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 2 with 12 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Betting
Alex Perez (24-7, 6-3 UFC)
Perez came into the UFC with a record of 18-4 and he has six wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Carls John de Tomas by anaconda submission, Eric Shelton by unanimous decision, Jose Torres by KO, Mark De La Rosa by unanimous decision, Jordan Espinosa by technical submission, and Jussier Formiga by TKO; while losing to Joseph Benavidez by TKO, Deiveson Figueiredo by guillotine choke submission, and Alexandre Pantoja by neck crank submission. Perez has been a pro since 2011 and he has five wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Muhammad Mokaev (11-0, 5-0 UFC)
Mokaev came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has five wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Cody Durden by guillotine choke submission, Charles Johnson by unanimous decision, Malcolm Gordon by armbar submission, Jafel Filho by neck crank submission, and Tim Elliott by arm-triangle choke submission. Mokaev has been a pro since 2020 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has two first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Perez 4.67 /Mokaev 1.12
Striking Accuracy: Perez 48% /Mokaev 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Perez 3.14/Mokaev 1.19
Defense: Perez 60% /Mokaev 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Perez 2.84/Mokaev 6.47
Takedown Accuracy: Perez 44%/Mokaev 53%
Takedowns defended: Perez 77%/Mokaev 0%
Submission average: Perez 1.3/Mokaev 1.3
UFC Picks
Mokaev is a big UFC betting favorite in this fight. Mokaev is up to No. 7 in the latest flyweight rankings, while Perez is ranked No. 15. There is no question that Mokaev is a future star in the UFC, while Perez is fighting for just the second time since he fought Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255 in 2020. Perez lost by first round submission to Alexandre Pantoja in July of 2022.
When you look at this fight you have to decide if you want to lay the big money on Mokaev or take a shot at the rounds. It is hard to make much of a case for taking Perez, as he hasn’t fought in more than a year and he didn’t look very good the last time he did fight. Now he is facing a buzzsaw in Mokaev who is very likely to get this fight to the mat and finish it. If you are going to make a play on a fighter then perhaps you look to play a prop with Mokaev to win by submission to get the price down to a reasonable level.
I think the best choice in this fight is to play the rounds. The rounds option at BookMaker is listed at 2.5 rounds. I am a little surprised the price on the under is not listed as a hefty favorite. It was listed at just -105 odds on going under the total. There is nothing about this fight to suggest it goes to a decision, as Perez doesn’t figure to have what it takes to win and it seems unlikely the fight will be competitive. Mokaev has finished eight of his 11 fights and Perez was not very competitive in his last fight. I think taking the rounds to go under the UFC betting odds is the best choice in this fight.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 03/02 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | +130 |
| Shamil Gaziev | -163 |
| 03/02 | Tyson Pedro | +238 |
| Vitor Petrino | -315 |
| 03/02 | Alex Perez | +270 |
| Muhammad Mokaev | -365 |
| 03/02 | Jamie Pickett | +345 |
| Eryk Anders | -490 |
| 03/02 | Bekzat Almakhan | +675 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -1250 |
| 03/02 | Matt Schnell | +292 |
| Steve Erceg | -400 |
| 03/02 | Aiemann Zahabi | +545 |
| Javid Basharat | -900 |
| 03/02 | Christian Leroy Duncan | -320 |
| Claudio Ribeiro | +241 |
| 03/02 | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | -185 |
| Loik Radzhabov | +146 |
| 03/02 | AJ Cunningham | +524 |
| Ludovit Klein | -850 |
| 03/02 | Benardo Sopaj | +100 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | -130 |
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