Former light heavyweight title challenger Alexander Gustafsson (18-6, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will move up to heavyweight and meet former champion Fabricio Werdum (23-9, 6 KOs, 11 SUBs) this Saturday, July 25, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The light heavyweight contest serves on the main card which airs on ESPN starting 11pm ET. A middleweight matchup between Robert Whittaker and Darren TIll headlines the night.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Gustafsson as a heavy -280 favorite in his divisional debut. Werdum comes back at +230 despite being the former titleholder. Let’s break down the matchup, dive into the stats and get into your best bets at the online sportsbook.
Bet on UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Alexander Gustafsson (18-6, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs)
Did anyone expect Gustafsson to stay retired for long? He backed himself into a corner in his last outing, stating that a loss to Anthony Smith would mean he “didn’t have it anymore”. This came after a long awaited rematch with Jon Jones where he was thoroughly spanked. Those back-to-back losses took him out of elite territory - for a long time he was the guy that just barely lost to Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier.
Being downgraded is a tough pill to swallow. Instead of making his way back up the 205-pound ladder, Gustafsson is moving up a weight class. The move comes as something of a surprise, as the 33-year old has never had issues making weight. However, he is 33 years old and stands 6’4”, so one can assume he cuts a decent amount of weight. We’d expect Gus to walk into the cage around 230 pounds.
But can he hang with the big dudes? He’ll have a nice speed advantage against most guys, but he wasn’t exactly overpowering fighters at 205 either. Jumping into the cage against Werdum will tell us a lot right away.
Fabricio Werdum (23-9, 6 KOs, 11 SUBs)
Recent years haven’t been kind to “Vai Cavalo”. In 2018, he was knocked out by Alexander Volkov in the 4th round of a winnable fight. After that came a 2 year suspension courtesy of a hot USADA test. Not only did it taint a former champion’s legacy, it came right when the Brazilian turned 40.
It doesn’t seem the layoff was helpful. In his return scrap against Aleksei Oleinik this past May, Werdum’s body looked a lot softer and he didn’t have much energy in the split decision loss. Though he did show the same dangerous grappling skills in a few exchanges, it’s not a good look Oleinik was backing him up with strikes - the Russian is nobody’s idea of killer kickboxer. By the end of the three rounds, both guys were exhausted.
Werdum will have to improve his cardio if he hopes to beat a mobile striker like Gustafsson. Keep an idea of how his body looks during fight week - if he’s back in shape then he is absolutely a live underdog. We’ve seen how well he can perform when he’s 100% committed.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Werdum 4.64 / Gustafsson 4.02
Striking accuracy: Werdum 56% / Gustafsson 40%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Werdum 4.57 / Gustafsson 3.44
Striking defense: Werdum 55% / Gustafsson 51%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Werdum 1.18 / Gustafsson 1.56
Takedown accuracy: Werdum 27% / Gustafsson 39%
Takedown defense: Werdum 31% / Gustafsson 85%
Submission average: Werdum 0.39 / Gustafsson 0.41
UFC Picks
Gustafsson has more left than Werdum, and there won’t be much of a size difference between the two. The Swede’s footwork and movement will allow him to pick his opponent apart en route to a clear win. We’re not really worried about Werdum taking this to the ground, as Gus has always had excellent takedown defense. Keep an eye on the weigh-ins as well - if Werdum’s body is looking saggy we’d really recommend taking Gustafsson inside the distance.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till Card & Odds
Middleweight - Darren Till -108 vs. Robert Whittaker -123
Women's Bantamweight - Bethe Correia +118 vs. Pannie Kianzad -151
Heavyweight - Fabricio Werdum +263 vs. Alexander Gustafsson -354
Light Heavyweight - Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +149 vs. Mauricio Rua -190
Featherweight - Mike Grundy +158 vs. Movsar Evloev -200
Welterweight - Peter Sobotta +138 vs. Alex Oliveira -174
Heavyweight - Jake Collier +161 vs. Tom Aspinall -205
Welterweight - Jesse Ronson +214 vs. Nicolas Dalby -280
Light Heavyweight - Paul Craig -129 vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov -103
Women's Strawweight - Carla Esparza +145 vs. Marina Rodriguez -183
Lightweight - Jai Herbert +131 vs. Francisco Trinaldo -165
Welterweight - Niklas Stolze +289 vs. Ramazan Emeev -395
Heavyweight - Raphael Pessoa +195 vs. Tanner Boser -252
Bantamweight - John Castaneda +368 vs. Nathaniel Wood -533
Welterweight - Rhys McKee +669 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -1231
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