Alexandre Pantoja is slightly favored against Manel Kape at UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov on Saturday, February 6 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of six fights on the main card on ESPN+. Pantoja is 22-5 in his career, while Kape is 15-4 in his career. There are a total of six fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, with the headliner a bout between Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Pantoja and Kape and UFC picks.
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Alexandre Pantoja (22-5, 6-3 UFC)
Pantoja came into the UFC with a record of 16-2 and he has six wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Eric Shelton by split decision, Neil Seery by rear-naked choke submission, Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision, Ulka Sasaki by rear-naked choke submission, Wilson Reis by TKO, and Matt Schnell by TKO; while losing to Dustin Ortiz by unanimous decision, Deiveson Figueiredo by unanimous decision, and Askar Askarov by unanimous decision. Pantoja has been a pro since 2007 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and eight by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Manel Kape (15-4, UFC debut)
Kape will be making his UFC debut this Saturday. In his last fight, he defeated Kai Asakura by TKO on December 31, 2019. Kape’s last loss in his career was against Yuta Sasaki by unanimous decision on December 31, 2018. Kape has been a pro since 2012 and he has nine wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. He has seven first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Pantoja 4.20/ Kape 0.00
Striking Accuracy: Pantoja 47% / Kape 0%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Pantoja 3.41/ Kape 0.00
Defense: Pantoja 54% / Kape 0%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Pantoja 1.08/ Kape 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Pantoja 36% / Kape 0%
Takedowns defended: Pantoja 67% / Kape 0%
Submission average: Pantoja 1.1/ Kape 0.0
UFC Picks
Kape is making his UFC debut, but we already know that he has talent. He looked good last time out with a knockout win against Kai Asakura. Kape has had his UFC debut pushed back by COVID-19 over the past year, but this time he should finally get to face Pantoja. Kape doesn’t leave anything to chance, as all but one of his wins have been finishes. He has nine knockout or TKO wins and five wins by decision. When it comes to fighters making their debuts, I look a lot at the odds and if oddsmakers favor the fighter making his debut that fighter almost always wins. That is not the case here, but it is close, as Kape is just a slight underdog. I lean toward Kape in this fight, but I think the better choice is to take the rounds to go under. These two have combined for 16 first round finishes, so this should be a quick fight.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Card & Odds
Heavyweight - Alistair Overeem +158 vs. Alexander Volkov -191
Bantamweight - Frankie Edgar +332 vs. Cory Sandhagen -434
Lightweight - Beneil Dariush -102 vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira -122
Flyweight - Manel Kape +108 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -132
Women's Bantamweight - Marion Reneau +173 vs. Macy Chiasson -210
Women's Flyweight - Lara Procopio +134 vs. Molly McCann -162
Lightweight - Clay Guida +177 vs. Michael Johnson -215
Light Heavyweight - Danilo Marques +196 vs. Mike Rodríguez -240
Featherweight - Seung Woo Choi +203 vs. Youssef Zalal -250
Women's Bantamweight - Joselyne Edwards +200 vs. Karol Rosa -245
Lightweight - Justin Jaynes +228 vs. Devonte Smith -284
Featherweight - Martin Day +267 vs. Timur Valiev -337
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