Longtime heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem (47-18, 25 KOs, 17 SUBs) will meet No. 6 contender Alexander Volkov (32-8, 21 KOs, 3 SUBs) in the main event of at UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov on Saturday, Feb 6, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the co-main event, No. 2 bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (13-2, 5 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 4 Frankie Edgar (24-8, 7 KOs, 4 SUBs) in a possible title eliminator. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Volkov as a -187 favorite, with Overeem at +147 on the comeback. Let's take a look at the Overeem-Volkov odds and break down your best betting picks at the online sportsbook.
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The Stakes
Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou are set to fight for the title at UFC 260. Jon Jones is out there somewhere waiting to jump the line. But after that? It only takes one or two big performances for any top heavyweight to merit consideration to fight for the strap. Overeem has the name and the legacy that's easy to build a case around. Volkov could use him as a stepping stone here and push him closer to retirement. Winner stays in the most volatile UFC title mix.
Alistair Overeem (47-18, 25 KOs, 17 SUBs)
Credit to The Reem for staying competitive at 40 years old. This is a dude with more than 70 pro fights, and has been on the wrong end of 14 KOs - some of which looked like they might've killed a normal sized person. But he's clearly still got a lot to offer, coming into the fight on the strength of two straight KOs of Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai. If you're a mid-tier fighter thinking to use Overeem as a stepping stone, you might wanna think twice.
On paper, Overeem has championship level skills - he is a former Strikeforce, Dream and K-1 titleholder. But a few big things are holding him back from the ultimate prize. First and foremost is his durability: he might just have the most famously fragile chin in the division. It's to the point where guys like Rozenstruik can get picked apart for five rounds but rely on a single flurry to end the fight. It only takes a few big cracks to put Overeem on a spiral he can't get out of. A physical decline across the board is worrisome as well - he simply can't outmuscle folks like he used to and his cardio has never been more questionable.
Alexander Volkov (32-8, 21 KOs, 3 SUBs)
Though Volkov stands 6'7", he hasn't drawn much attention recently. His ascent as a title contender was quickly halted by Derrick Lewis in 2018, when he was knocked out in the last 10 seconds of a fight that he was easily winning. A tuneup win against Greg Hardy was disappointing in that he was unable to knock out a somebody that barely fights at a pro level. He was grinded into fine powder by Curtis Blaydes' wrestling, but most recently bounced back with a win over Walt Harris.
There are a few reasons why "Drago" is favored. It's likely he won't have to worry too much about getting taken down, which will let him fight on the feet where he's most comfortable. He is younger and quicker than his opponent, and possesses a greater range due to his height. While he's not a noted knockout artist, he is a legit 250 pounds and can do a lot of damage with his strikes. That goes a long way against a guy with a weak chin.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Overeem 3.71 / Volkov 4.76
Striking accuracy: Overeem 64% / Volkov 58%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Overeem 2.33 / Volkov 2.53
Striking defense: Overeem 58% / Volkov 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Overeem 1.44 / Volkov 0.69
Takedown accuracy: Overeem 56% / Volkov 70%
Takedown defense: Overeem 73% / Volkov 65%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Overeem 0.8 / Volkov 0.2
UFC Picks
While we can see why Volkov is a solid favorite, we just can't justify betting anywhere from -180 to -200. In a kickboxing match, bet against Overeem at your own risk. The safest bet here is that the fight doesn't go to decision, simply because his fights pretty much never go to the scorecards. However, we do know that this is an expensive bet, so our takeaway is this: bet Overeem anywhere around +175, or take Volkov closer to the -150 range. Remember, we're going for value picks here.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Card & Odds
Heavyweight - Alistair Overeem +158 vs. Alexander Volkov -191
Bantamweight - Frankie Edgar +332 vs. Cory Sandhagen -434
Lightweight - Beneil Dariush -102 vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira -122
Flyweight - Manel Kape +108 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -132
Women's Bantamweight - Marion Reneau +173 vs. Macy Chiasson -210
Women's Flyweight - Lara Procopio +134 vs. Molly McCann -162
Lightweight - Clay Guida +177 vs. Michael Johnson -215
Light Heavyweight - Danilo Marques +196 vs. Mike Rodríguez -240
Featherweight - Seung Woo Choi +203 vs. Youssef Zalal -250
Women's Bantamweight - Joselyne Edwards +200 vs. Karol Rosa -245
Lightweight - Justin Jaynes +228 vs. Devonte Smith -284
Featherweight - Martin Day +267 vs. Timur Valiev -337
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