Carlos Ulberg is favored against Alonzo Menifield at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento on Saturday, May 11 in St. Louis, Missouri. This event is one of 13 fights on ESPN and ESPN+. Menifield is 15-3-1 in his career, including 8-3-1 in the UFC, while Ulberg is 9-1 in his career, including 5-1 in the UFC. There are a total of 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento. Let’s look at the bout between Menifield and Ulberg and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento takes place at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri on Saturday, May 11 with 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting
Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1, 8-3-1 UFC)
Menifield came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has eight wins, three losses, and one draw in the UFC. He defeated Vinicius Moreira by TKO, Paul Craig by KO, Fabio Cherant by shoulder choke submission, Ed Herman by unanimous decision, Askar Mozharov by TKO, Misha Cirkunov by KO, Jimmy Crute by guillotine choke submission, and Dustin Jacoby by unanimous decision; while losing to Devin Clark by unanimous decision, Ovince Saint Preux by KO, and William Knight by unanimous decision; and fighting to a draw against Jimmy Crute by majority. Menifield has been a pro since 2015 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.
Carlos Ulberg (9-1, 5-1 UFC)
Ulberg came into the UFC with a record of 4-0 and he has five wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Fabio Cherant by unanimous decision, Tafon Nchukwi by TKO, Nicolae Negumereanu by KO, Ihor Potieria by TKO, and Jung Da-un by rear-naked choke submission; while losing to Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO. Ulberg has been a pro since 2011 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Menifield 3.92 /Ulberg 7.29
Striking Accuracy: Menifield 57% /Ulberg 59%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Menifield 3.51/Ulberg 3.59
Defense: Menifield 49% /Ulberg 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Menifield 0.67/Ulberg 0.95
Takedown Accuracy: Menifield 33%/Ulberg 75%
Takedowns defended: Menifield 75%/Ulberg 75%
Submission average: Menifield 0.3/Ulberg 0.3
UFC Picks
Menifield is 36 years old and has won four of his last five fights with one draw. Ulberg has won five of his last six fights, with each of those victories coming by way of stoppage. Menifield has a significant strike rate of 3.92 per minute with a striking accuracy of 57% but he absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute, reflecting a striking defense of 49%. On the other hand, Ulberg outshines with a higher strike rate of 7.29 per minute and a slightly better accuracy of 59%. His strike absorption is close at 3.59, but with a superior defense of 52%. Both fighters are decent in their ground game, with Menifield achieving a takedown average of 0.67 per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 33% and he has a takedown defense of 75%. Ulberg has fewer takedowns (0.52 average) but he has higher accuracy of 75% and he is even in takedown defense.
Ulberg is listed as almost a 3-1 favorite in UFC betting odds to win this fight. I think Ulberg should be favored but the price is too high. I am not a value bettor when it comes to UFC betting, but if I was, there is definitely some value in taking Menifield at this price of more than 2-1.
I am a little surprised at the UFC betting rounds for this fight. I know that these two fighters have finishing power, but the rounds are listed at just 1.5. It doesn’t take much for a fight to go over the total, as it just needs to make it halfway through the second round. I think this fight is going to be closer than the odds indicate and I can see it going over the rounds total.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 05/11 |
Rodrigo Nascimento |
+124 |
| Derrick Lewis |
-156 |
| 05/11 |
Carlos Ulberg |
-265 |
| Alonzo Menifield |
+204 |
| 05/11 |
Esteban Ribovics |
-160 |
| Terrance McKinney |
+127 |
| 05/11 |
Jake Hadley |
-160 |
| Charles Johnson |
+127 |
| 05/11 |
Sean Woodson |
-200 |
| Alex Caceres |
+158 |
| 05/11 |
Robelis Despaigne |
-210 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta |
+165 |
| 05/11 |
Viacheslav Borshchev |
-155 |
| Chase Hooper |
+124 |
| 05/11 |
Trey Waters |
-155 |
| Billy Goff |
+124 |
| 05/11 |
Kevin Jousset |
-220 |
| Jared Gooden |
+172 |
| 05/11 |
Veronica Hardy |
-140 |
| JJ Aldrich |
+110 |
| 05/11 |
Mateusz Rebecki |
-400 |
| Diego Ferreira |
+292 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev |
+127 |
| Joaquin Buckley |
-160 |
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props, and money lines are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
Check out the latest odds at BookMaker
