Former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (30-19, 17 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet British prospect Tom Aspinall (9-2, 8 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Blaydes on Saturday, February 20, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET. In the main event, heavyweight title contender Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (14-2, 10 KOs) squares off against popular killshot puncher Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (24-7, 19 KOs, 1 SUB). Let’s take a look at the Arlovski-Aspinall UFC odds at the online sportsbook and get to your best UFC betting picks.
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The Stakes
Every time we think it’s over for Andrei Arlovski, he bounces back. The 42-year old goes back to an era where he battled Tim Sylvia and Randy Couture, but he’s still chugging along and beating some pretty solid fighters in the process. After being blasted into the shadow realm by Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 2019, the former champ has posted two straight wins over Philip Lins and Tanner Boser. Arlovski will try to make it three straight against Tom Aspinall, a 27-year old bruiser who has won both of his UFC fights.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Aspinall as a -265 favorite, with Arlvoski at +204 on the comeback.
Andrei Arlovski (30-19, 17 KOs, 3 SUBs)
We give up trying to predict when Arlovski is going to hang up the gloves. What’s clear is that he’s still got enough to beat midtier heavyweights, but not consistently enough to really matter in the division. So basically, that’s a long-winded way of saying that Arlovski is a midlevel guy himself. Only he’s a known name, simply because he’s been doing this for so long and once - a long long time ago - had the heavyweight belt wrapped around his chest.
Everybody knows that Arlvoski’s chin is compromised. This Saturday marks his 50th pro fight, and he’s been knocked out in more than 20% of them - most of them coming in recent years. There’s no denying that he’s far past his physical prime, as he’s lost much of the athleticism that made him such a beast in his 20s and early 30s. While he’s still got enough experience and boxing skills to mask some of his decline, there is always the threat that he completely gasses out or gets his noggin blown up.
Tom Aspinall (9-2, 8 KOs, 1 SUB)
Heavyweight isn’t a division that overflowing with young prospects, so Aspinall is definitely a welcome addition as a promising 27-year old. He’s a big guy at 6’5” and tips the scales at around 260 pounds. After solid stints on the British regional scene and Cage Warriors, Aspinall was given his shot in the UFC. He immediately made good on his debut, needing just 45 seconds to knock out veteran Jake Collier. He followed that up with another impressive performance, taking out Alan Baudot in 95 seconds.
This matchup looks like it could serve as Aspinall’s coming out party - blasting through Arlvoski seems to be a right of passage for any rising big man. Aspinall has the size, power and athleticism to make this a quick matchup, but we need to know whether he has the technique to go deep with a much more technical striker.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Arlovski 3.08 / Aspinall -
Striking accuracy: Arlovski / Aspinall -
Strikes absorbed per minute: Arlovski 3 / Aspinall -
Striking defense: Arlovski 58% / Aspinall -
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Arlovski 0.56 / Aspinall -
Takedown accuracy: Arlovski 36% / Aspinall -
Takedown defense: Arlovski 78% / Aspinall -
Submissions per 15 minutes: Arlovski 0.31 / -
UFC Odds Pick: FIght goes to decision
There’s a reason why Aspinall is such a big favorite: he’s the type of big, fast knockout artist that could easily turn out Arlovski’s lights. It’s really tempting to simply go with the Brit by TKO, but we really just don’t know how he’ll fare here. Arlovski has molded himself into an excellent defensive fighter, and has a tendency of getting scraps to go to decision. Given the price of the decision prop, we think a small bet makes sense. It’s definitely a gamble, but that’s the name of the game.
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