Ryan Spann is favored against Bogdan Guskov at UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez on Saturday, April 27 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 13 fights on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+. Spann is 21-9 in his career, including 7-4 in the UFC, while Guskov is 15-3 in his career, including 1-1 in the UFC. There are a total of 13 fights, all on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez. Let’s look at the bout between Nicolau and Perez and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, April 27 with 13 fights, all on ESP, ESPN2, and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez Betting
Spann (21-9, 7-4 UFC)
Spann came into the UFC with a record of 14-5 and he has seven wins and four losses in the UFC. He defeated Luis Henrique by unanimous decision, Antônio Rogério Nogueira by KO, Devin Clark by guillotine choke submission, Sam Alvey by split decision, Misha Cirkunov by TKO, Ion Cu?elaba by guillotine chokes submission, and Dominick Reyes by TKO; while losing to Johnny Walker by KO, Nikita Krylov by triangle choke submission, and Anthony Smith twice with once by rear-naked choke submission and once by split decision. Spann has been a pro since 2013 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and 12 by submission. He has 16 first round finishes.
Bogdan Guskov (15-3, 1-1 UFC)
Guskov came into the UFC with a record of 14-2 and he has one win and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Zac Pauga by KO; while losing to Volkan Oezdemir by rear-naked choke submission. Guskov has been a pro since 2015 and he has 13 wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Spann 3.42 /Guskov 2.43
Striking Accuracy: Spann 40% /Guskov 33%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Spann 3.91/Guskov 5.81
Defense: Spann 45% /Guskov 40%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Spann 1.29/Guskov 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Spann 35%/Guskov 0%
Takedowns defended: Spann 47%/Guskov 66%
Submission average: Spann 1.5/Guskov 0.0
UFC Picks
Spann is a grappling specialist who has won 12 of his fights by submission and just six by KO/TKO. He has fought against some of the best in the light heavyweight division, including the likes of Ion Cutelaba and Dominick Reyes. The concern in this fight is that Spann's last win was against Reyes in 2022, and since then he has gone 0-2. In his last fight, Spann lost a split decision to Anthony Smith in August of 2023.
Guskov has won 13 of his 15 fights by KO/TKO. He hasn't faced many elite opponents, as he has competed in the UFC just twice. In his UFC debut, Guskov lost by submission to Volkan Oezdemir. Last February, he beat Zac Pauga by KO in the first round. Spann is listed as a 2-1 favorite in UFC betting odds to win this fight. I think that number is simply ridiculous. Spann hasn’t won a fight in almost two years and he hasn’t looked that great when he did fight. I know that Guskov doesn’t have a ton of experience, but the value in this fight is definitely on Guskov at the plus price. I won’t step out on a limb too far with Guskov but I think he is worth a small play.
I think the rounds are worth playing in this fight. We know that both of these fighters have finishing ability. Spann has finished 18 of his 21 wins. Guskov has a finish in all 15 of his wins. I also don’t know that Spann is going to want this fight to last long considering he hasn’t fought in almost a year. This has all the looks of a fight that should see a lot of action and it should result in a finish one way or the other. I’ll go under the UFC betting rounds option in this fight as the top play.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 04/27 |
Alex Perez |
+146 |
| Matheus Nicolau |
-185 |
| 04/27 |
Bogdan Guskov |
+158 |
| Ryan Spann |
-200 |
| 04/27 |
Karine Silva |
-165 |
| Ariane Lipski |
+131 |
| 04/27 |
Victor Henry |
-520 |
| Rani Yahya |
+362 |
| 04/27 |
Uros Medic |
-320 |
| Tim Means |
+241 |
| 04/27 |
David Onama |
+149 |
| Jonathan Pearce |
-188 |
| 04/27 |
Maheshate |
-215 |
| Gabriel Benitez |
+168 |
| 04/27 |
Liang Na |
+368 |
| Ivana Petrovic |
-530 |
| 04/27 |
Caio Machado |
-130 |
| Don'Tale Mayes |
+100 |
| 04/27 |
Ketlen Souza |
-325 |
| Marnic Mann |
+244 |
| 04/27 |
Jhonata Diniz |
-250 |
| Austen Lane |
+194 |
| 04/27 |
Michal Figlak |
-155 |
| Austin Hubbard |
+124 |
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