Middleweight prospect Brendan Allen (15-3, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs) will meet the tough Ian Heinisch (14-3, 5 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira on Saturday, November 7, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN starting 5pm ET. The middleweight matchup supports a main event featuring light heavyweight contenders Thiago Santos (21-7, 15 KOs, 1 SUB) and Glover Teixeira (31-7, 18 KOs, 8 SUBs) in a likely title eliminator. Let’s take a closer look at the UFC odds for Heinisch vs. Allen, break down the fight and get to your best online betting picks.
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Brendan Allen (15-3, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs)
At just 24 years old, Allen has already compiled a 3-0 record inside the octagon - two coming by stoppage. After subbing Aaron Jeffrey on DWCS to punch his ticket to the show, “All In” carried carried over his momentum into his UFC debut, where he scored an RNC finish over Kevin Holland. His encore went even better, as he hammered a brutal elbow upside Tom Breese’s head to score a first round finish. This past June, Allen scored a UD over Kyle Dauskas in a solid performance. While Heinisch might not be a huge name, Allen gets an opportunity to notch a breakthrough win against a fighter who has put in work against some very good fighters at 185 pounds.
As one of the better prospects at 185 pounds, Allen is as aggressive as they come. He could improve on the feet, as there isn’t much nuance to his striking - All In is a wild one but at least he is dynamic. His best work comes in the grappling exchanges, as Allen loves to charge forward, latch himself onto opponents, and hunt for finishes. It isn’t a very subtle approach, but not everybody has to be a Demian Maia to be a submission specialist.
Ian Heinisch (14-3, 5 KOs, 7 SUBs)
Heinisch can certainly relate to his opponent: The Hurricane jumped out to three excellent wins to start his UFC career. However, leveling up his competition quickly killed his hype, as Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov grinded him down for UD losses in back-to-back matchups. He got back into the win column in a big way this past June, knocking out Gerald Meerschaert in just over a minute at UFC 250. At 32, Heinisch really has one chance left to evolve and prove that he can be a legitimate top-15 guy. Beating young bucks like Allen would be an excellent reminder of his abilities.
We hope that Heinisch can keep evolving - he’s so damn fun to watch. There aren’t that many true sprawl-and-brawlers any more, and Heinisch personifies that description. He plants himself in the pocket and dares foes to go first, reacting with explosive combinations. Because he’s got springy hips and a strong base, Heinisch is above average in scrambling against grapplers and forcing them to play his game. However, both Brunson and Akhmedov proved that a disciplined, measured approach could really take Heinisch out of his element - this is why he desperately needs to evolve.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Heinisch 3.62 / Allen 2.67
Striking accuracy: Heinisch 52% / Allen 60%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Heinisch 2.85 / Allen 2.55
Striking defense: Heinisch 59% / Allen 35%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Heinisch 1.16 / Allen 1.42
Takedown accuracy: Heinisch 19% / Allen 37%
Takedown defense: Heinisch 62% / Allen 55%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Heinisch 0.5 / Allen 2.4
UFC Picks
While we like Allen as a prospect, we’re just not sure if he’s got the discipline to get by Heinisch just yet. Heinisch is an excellent scrambler, and that’s largely how Allen tends to get his wins. In this matchup, we see Heinisch winning the standup portion and doing more damage. While it’s too difficult to pick whether this fight goes to decision or not, we like the price you can get on Heinisch against a still developing prospect.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira Card & Odds
Light Heavyweight - Glover Teixeira +191 vs. Thiago Santos -235
Middleweight - Ian Heinsich -112 vs. Brendan Allen -112
Women’s Strawweight - Claudia Gadelha +113 vs. Yan Xiaonan -137
Heavyweight - Andrei Arlovski +232 vs. Tanner Boser -289
Featherweight - Jeremy Stephens +154 vs. Arnold Allen -186
Middleweight - Trevin Giles -107 vs. Bevon Lewis -117
Welterweight - Ramiz Rahimaj +115 vs. Max Griffin -139
Featherweight - Eduardo Garagorri +200 vs. Darren Elkins -245
Heavyweight - Marcos Rogerio de Lima +303 vs. Alexander Romanov -390
Bantamweight - Khalid Taha +277 vs. Raoni Barcelos -352
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