Rafa Garcia is heavily favored against Chris Gruetzemacher at UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland on Saturday, July 31 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN/ESPN+. Gruetzemacher is 14-4 in his career, while Garcia is 11-1 in his career. There are a total of six fights on the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland and seven preliminary bouts on ESPN/ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Gruetzemacher and Garcia and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland takes place at UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 31 with six fights on the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ and seven preliminary bouts also on ESPN/ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland Betting
Chris Gruetzemacher (14-4, 2-3 UFC)
Gruetzemacher came into the UFC with a record of 12-1 and he has two wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Abner Lloveras by unanimous decision and Joe Lauzon by TKO; while losing to Chas Skelly by rear-naked choke submission, Davi Ramos by rear-naked choke submission, and Alexander Hernandez by KO. Gruetzemacher has been a pro since 2008 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has six first round finishes.
Gruetzemacher came off a long layoff and lost to Hernandez last October. He should be better prepared this time around when he faces Garcia.
Rafa Garcia (11-1, 0-1 UFC)
Garcia came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has no wins and one loss in the UFC. He was defeated by Nasrat Haqparast by unanimous decision on March 13, 2021. Garcia’s last win in his career was against Humberto Bandenay by unanimous decision on February 21, 2020. Garcia has been a pro since 2014 and he has one win by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has six first round finishes.
Garcia is coming off a loss to Haqparast but you can kind of give Garcia a pass on that loss, as he took the fight on short notice. He will have no such excuse this time around, as he has had plenty of time to prepare.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Gruetzemacher 7.02 / Garcia 3.47
Striking Accuracy: Gruetzemacher 57% / Garcia 23%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Gruetzemacher 5.54 / Garcia 6.60
Defense: Gruetzemacher 55% / Garcia 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Gruetzemacher 0.00 / Garcia 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Gruetzemacher 0% / Garcia 0%
Takedowns defended: Gruetzemacher 62% / Garcia 100%
Submission average: Gruetzemacher 0.0 / Garcia 0.0
UFC Picks
The question you have to ask in this fight is whether or not Garcia is worth being more than a 2-1 favorite. The problem we have in this fight is that both of these fighters have a bit of an excuse for their last loss. Gruetzemacher was coming off a long layoff and probably wasn’t entirely prepared for his fight against Hernandez, while Garcia took the fight against Haqparast on short notice. Let’s just throw both of those results out and see where we are at.
Gruetzemacher is basically a .500 fighter in the UFC, while we still don’t know how good Garcia is. That makes laying a big price on Garcia very risky, since we really don’t know how he is going to do in the UFC. I would probably lean to Garcia in this fight, but there is no way he should be more than a 2-1 favorite.
I am a little bit surprised at the price on the rounds for this fight. Both of these fighters have the ability to finish and yet the rounds price is listed at -160 on over 2.5 rounds and +130 on the under. I don’t think this fight goes the distance, so I will take the rounds to go under the total at the plus price.
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland Card & Odds
Middleweight - Uriah Hall +168 vs. Sean Strickland -215
Lightweight - Chris Gruetzemacher +228 vs. Rafa Garcia -300
Welterweight - Jason Witt +211 vs. Bryan Barberena -275
Featherweight - Melsik Baghdasaryan -145 vs. Collin Anglin +115
Welterweight - Philip Rowe +127 vs. Orion Cosce -160
Women's Strawweight - Gloria de Paula +143 vs. Cheyanne Buys -180
Women’s Strawweight - Jinh Yu Frey +110 vs. Ashley Yoder -140
Bantamweight - Rani Yahya +110 vs. Kyung Ho Kang -140
Women’s Bantamweight - Yanan Wu+194 vs. Nicco Montano -250
Flyweight - Zarrukh Adashev +107 vs. Ryan Benoit -137
Bantamweight - Ronnie Lawrence -145 vs. Trevin Jones +115
Featherweight - Kai Kamaka -120 vs. Danny Chavez -110
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