No. 2 heavyweight Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (14-2, 10 KOs) will meet knockout artist Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (24-7, 19 KOs, 1 SUB) in the headlining matchup of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Blaydes on Saturday, February 20, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET. Also on the card are fights featuring women’s bantamweight Ketlen Viera, heavyweight submission specialist Aleksei Oleinik and long-ago heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best picks at the online sportsbook.
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Curtis Blaydes (14-2, 10 KOs)
Even as the No. 2 big man, Blaydes has been criminally overlooked and cast aside in the title hunt. Quite simply, people just don’t realize how good he’s been. In 16 pro fights, he’s only lost to one man (twice): Francis Ngannou. How much can you really hold that against him? Everybody gets knocked out by Ngannou. On the flip side, Blaydes owns wins over Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos and Alexander Volkov. He’s done enough to earn a title shot, but had to take a back seat to the Miocic-DC trilogy, and now Jon Jones could jump the line as well. Time is on his side as Blaydes is just 29 years old, but taking the longest route possible to a title shot has got to be frustrating for the man.
There are a lot of folks who believe that Blaydes is a champion in waiting, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s big, strong and athletic with good cardio - which is a rare combination to find in heavyweights. Most importantly, Blaydes is arguably the best MMA wrestler in the division and a punishing GNP artist to boot. He’s not one-dimensional either, as the Jackson-Wink rep’s striking keeps noticeably improving from fight to fight. Blaydes hasn’t reached his final form yet, and that’s something that should truly scare his peers.
Derrick Lewis (24-7, 19 KOs)
It’s honestly a minor miracle that Lewis got a title fight and continues to hang around the top tier. But here we are again: Lewis has won three straight and finds himself in a contest against the No. 2 heavyweight in the world. Nevermind that two of those wins were tepid decisions against mid-level guys in Blagoy Ivanov and Ilir Latifi. Knocking out Aleksei Oleinik in his last outing was a reminder that the 35-year can blast through anyone, any time. He’s also got a special knack for pulling wins out of his ass, as he’s knocked out multiple opponents in the final rounds of fights he was clearly losing.
No top heavyweight fails the eye test harder than Lewis. He’s a burly dude with zero cardio - we’ve seen him gas by round 2 over and over again. He’s not particularly fast or quick, doesn’t wrestle and isn’t the most technical striker. Though he’s beaten some legit fighters like Ngannou and Volkov, Lewis also struggled against a blown up light heavyweight in Ilir Latifi. There is a fluky quality to his resume, but there’s no denying that he consistently wins. Durability, heart and knockout power can apparently carry you a long way in the heavyweight division.
The odds are stacked against Lewis in this matchup, but this is a guy that you never count out. Blaydes has been knocked out before.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Blaydes 3.74 / Lewis 2.53
Striking accuracy: Blaydes 51% / Lewis 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Blaydes 1.86 / Lewis 2.14
Striking defense: Blaydes 57% / Lewis 44%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Blaydes 6.64 / Lewis 0.48
Takedown accuracy: Blaydes 55% / Lewis 24%
Takedown defense: Blaydes 25% / Lewis 53%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Blaydes 0 / Lewis 0
UFC Odds Pick: Blaydes to win inside the distance at -125
This is an easy pick to make. If DC was able to take down Lewis with easy, Blaydes should find little resistance in taking this to the ground. From there, it’s GNP all day. Normally, we’d have faith in Lewis’ toughness to get him to the scorecards, but Blaydes is just too good on top. At some point the ref is gonna pull Blaydes off Lewis.
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