No. 1 flyweight Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs) will meet No. 2 Joe Benavidez (28-6, 8 KOs, 9 SUBs) for the vacant flyweight title at UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo on Saturday, July 18, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The fight headlines a solid night of fights, including a co-main event featuring middleweight contenders Jack Hermansson (20-5) and Kelvin Gastelum (15-5). The main card features five contests on ESPN+, with six cards forming the prelims on the streaming service.
Let’s take a look at the main event and break down your best betting picks in a championship matchup between Figueiredo and Benavidez.
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Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs)
This will be the second time the Brazilian is fighting Joe Benavidez for the vacant title. The pair first met in February 2020, with Figueiredo walking away the winner via second-round TKO. However, there were a few extenuating circumstances that warranted an immediate rematch. First, Figueiredo missed weight by 2.5 pounds, which made him ineligible to win the title anyway. Second, a nasty clash of heads left Benavidez with a gushing cut right before Figueiredo’s finishing sequence. While the contact was incidental, it’s fair to assume that the outcome might have been different if Benavidez wasn’t leaking like a faucet.
As a massive 125-pounder, Figueiredo first must make sure that he makes weight - we’re not sure what would happen if he missed weight in consecutive title fights. Supposedly, kidney pains stopped what was already a brutal weight cut. It didn’t really slow him down inside the cage, as the fight was extremely competitive before the 32-year old unleashed a powerful fight-ending salvo.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Figueiredo as a big -230 favorite - although we have to mention that he closed as the +120 underdog in their first matchup.
Joe Benavidez (28-6, 8 KOs, 9 SUBs)
Benavidez has been doing work at 125 for a looooong time - at one point he was clearly the No. 2 guy for years behind Demetrious Johnson. To see all his hard work pay off with a UFC championship would be a nice story. It’s just not going to come easy.
Here’s the thing though: Benavidez won that first round against Figueiredo. The longtime Team Alpha Male product was getting the better of the standup and fought his way out of Figueiredo’s fearsome submission attacks. There were even a few combinations that wobbled the Brazilian, though he was never seriously hurt. Of course, Figueiredo was throwing his vaunted killshots, but Benavidez was circling away well. The question is whether he can keep his focus against a fighter where there is so little margin for error.
The current odds at BookMaker.eu show Benavidez as a +165 underdog - his line has moved slightly down but for the most part he’s hovered around this range for a while.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Benavidez 3.45 / Figueiredo 2.43
Striking accuracy: Benavidez 33% / Figueiredo 52%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Benavidez 2.54 / Figueiredo 2.15
Striking defense: Benavidez 63% / Figueiredo 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Benavidez 1.45 / Figueiredo 1.86
Takedown accuracy: Benavidez 29% / Figueiredo 50%
Takedown defense: Benavidez 65% / Figueiredo 58%
Submission average: Benavidez 0.6 / Figueiredo 2.27
UFC Picks
We simply can’t pass up a +179 money line on Joe Benavidez. While Figueiredo is younger and clearly stronger, Benavidez showed that he had the right gameplan to win rounds against the Brazilian. This is one of the most experienced guys on the roster, and he’s not that far out of his prime yet. He’s got the skills and tools to pick up where he left off and eke out a win - we’ll take a small chance at this price.
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez Card & Odds
Flyweight Championship - Joe Benavidez +165 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo -210
Flyweight - Askar Askarov +165 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -210
Middleweight - Jack Hermansson -104 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -125
Light Heavyweight - Khadis Ibragimov +150 vs. Roman Dolidze -190
Heavyweight - Sergey Spivak -161 vs. Carlos Felipe +129
Lightweight - Davi Ramos +158 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -200
Lightweight - Rafael Fiziev +127 vs. Marc Diakiese -160
Catchweight (150) - Nad Narimani +194 vs. Grant Dawson -250
Women’s Flyweight - Luana Carolina +100 vs. Ariane Lipski -130
Lightweight - Joel Alvarez +282 vs. Joe Duffy -383
Bantamweight - Brett Johns +158 vs. Montel Jackson -200
Flyweight - Malcolm Gordon +158 vs. Aleksandr Doskalchuk -200
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