Derrick Lewis is favored against Rodrigo Nascimento at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento on Saturday, May 11 in St. Louis, Missouri. This event is one of 13 fights on ESPN and ESPN+. Lewis is 27-12 in his career, including 18-10 in the UFC, while Nascimento is 11-1 in his career, including 4-1 in the UFC. There are a total of 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento. Let’s look at the bout between Lewis and Nascimento and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento takes place at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri on Saturday, May 11 with 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting
Derrick Lewis (27-12, 18-10 UFC)
Lewis came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and he has 18 wins and 10 losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has two wins and four losses. He defeated Chris Daukaus by KO and Marcos Rogério de Lima by TKO; while losing to Tai Tuivasa by KO, Sergei Pavlovich by TKO, Serghei Spivac by arm-triangle choke submission, and Jailton Almeida by unanimous decision. Lewis has been a pro since 2010 and he has 22 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Lewis said this to supersport.com about his upcoming fight against Nascimento, “Just being unpredictable... you never know what I’m going to do. In the first round, as soon as the bell rings, you never know what I’m going to come out and do. There is stuff I’ve been wanting to do for years inside the Octagon that I didn’t have the cardio to do it, but I finally believe I’ve got a little more cardio and I can really achieve these things now.”
Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1, 4-1 UFC)
Nascimento came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has four wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Don'Tale Mayes by rear-naked choke submission, Tanner Boser by split decision, Ilir Latifi by split decision, and Don'Tale Mayes by unanimous decision; while losing to Chris Daukaus by KO. Nascimento has been a pro since 2012 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has six first round finishes.
Nascimento said this to supersport.com about his upcoming fight against Lewis, “I learned a lot about staying focused. That’s how life is—highs and lows all the time. I’ll show that I’m a different kind of fighter. I’ve had highs and lows, but that’s OK. I’ve learned a lot.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Lewis 2.43 /Nascimento 4.31
Striking Accuracy: Lewis 50% /Nascimento 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Lewis 2.48/Nascimento 4.76
Defense: Lewis 40% /Nascimento 43%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Lewis 0.53/Nascimento 1.20
Takedown Accuracy: Lewis 26%/Nascimento 33%
Takedowns defended: Lewis 53%/Nascimento 77%
Submission average: Lewis 0.0/Nascimento 0.7
UFC Picks
We get yet another main event featuring Lewis. He has lost four of his last six fights, including a main event loss to Jailton Almeida in November. Nascimento is 4-1 in the UFC but his level of competition definitely hasn’t been anything special. Lewis is listed as the favorite in this fight but the price isn’t that high. There is no question that Lewis has faced far better competition than has Nascimento and this is really a fight that Lewis needs to win if he expects to continue to get big paydays. I’ll lay the price and take Lewis to get the win.
I also think the rounds are worth a strong look. It used to be that you could simply take Lewis fights to go under, but I don’t think that is the case any longer. He went the distance in his last fight against Almeida and Lewis seems to be making it a point to say that his cardio is better and he wants to show what he can do. You can’t do much of that if the fight doesn’t last long. I’ll also take the rounds to go over the total.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 05/11 | Rodrigo Nascimento | +124 |
| Derrick Lewis | -156 |
| 05/11 | Carlos Ulberg | -265 |
| Alonzo Menifield | +204 |
| 05/11 | Esteban Ribovics | -160 |
| Terrance McKinney | +127 |
| 05/11 | Jake Hadley | -160 |
| Charles Johnson | +127 |
| 05/11 | Sean Woodson | -200 |
| Alex Caceres | +158 |
| 05/11 | Robelis Despaigne | -210 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | +165 |
| 05/11 | Viacheslav Borshchev | -155 |
| Chase Hooper | +124 |
| 05/11 | Trey Waters | -155 |
| Billy Goff | +124 |
| 05/11 | Kevin Jousset | -220 |
| Jared Gooden | +172 |
| 05/11 | Veronica Hardy | -140 |
| JJ Aldrich | +110 |
| 05/11 | Mateusz Rebecki | -400 |
| Diego Ferreira | +292 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | +127 |
| Joaquin Buckley | -160 |
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