A lightweight bout between Diego Ferreira and Gregor Gillespie takes place at UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Rodriguez on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Ferreira is 17-3 in his career, while Gillespie is 13-1 in his career. Both fighters are coming off losses, as Ferreira was beaten by Beniel Dariush, while Gillespie is coming off a loss to Kevin Lee. There are a total of five fights on the main card on ESPN and there are seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let's look at the bout between Ferreira and Gillespie and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Rodriguez Betting
Diego Ferreira (17-3, 8-3 UFC)
Ferreira came into the UFC with a record of 9-0 and he is 8-3 in the UFC. He is 4-1 in his last five fights. He is coming off a split decision loss to Beneil Dariush in February. Ferreira won by submission against Anthony Pettis in January of 2020, won a unanimous decision against Mairbek Taisumov in September of 2019, won a unanimous decision against Rusatam Khabilov in February of 2019 and won by TKO against Kyle Nelson in December of 2018. Ferreira has been a pro since 2011 and he has three knockouts and seven submissions. He has four first round finishes.
Gregor Gillespie (13-1, 6-1 UFC)
Gillespie came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has six wins and one loss in the UFC. His first career loss came against Kevin Lee in November of 2019. His previous four wins were by TKO against Yancy Medeiros in January of 2019, by submission against Vinc Pichel against June of 2018, won by TKO against Jordan Rinaldi in January of 2018 and won by submission against Jason Gonzalez in September of 2017. Gillespie has been a pro since 2014 and he has six knockouts and five submissions. He has seven first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Ferreira 4.85/ Gillespie 3.58
Striking Accuracy: Ferreira 37% / Gillespie 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Ferreira 3.26/ Gillespie 2.14
Defense: Ferreira 58% / Gillespie 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ferreira 0.89/ Gillespie 7.02
Takedown Accuracy: Ferreira 26% / Gillespie 47%
Takedowns defended: Ferreira 68% / Gillespie 0%
Submission average: Ferreira 0.9/ Gillespie 0.9
UFC Picks
Gillespie has been out of action for about a year and a half, so the layoff is a concern, but there is no question Gillespie has been itching to get back into the octagon after his loss to Lee. I think Ferreira would have the edge on the ground, while Gillespie has the edge in striking. I don't know that either of these fighters has the cardio to go the distance, especially Gillespie, since he is coming off a long layoff. I lean slightly to Gillespie, but I am not laying almost 2-1 on him. I think the better choice is to expect a finish and to play the rounds to go under the total.
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Rodriguez Card & Odds
Women's Flyweight - Michelle Waterson +161 vs. Marina Rodriguez -205
Heavyweight - Philipe Lins -110 vs. Ben Rothwell -120
Women's Strawweight - Angela Hill +143 vs. Amanda Ribas -180
Welterweight - Neil Magny +150 vs. Geoff Neal -190
Lightweight - Carlos Diego Ferreira +146 vs. Gregor Gillespie -185
Middleweight - Kyle Daukaus -140 vs. Phil Hawes +110
Flyweight - Zarrukh Adashev +120 vs. Ryan Benoit -150
Heavyweight - Maurice Greene +158 vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -200
Welterweight - Christian Aguilera +120 vs. Carlston Harris -150
Middleweight - Jun Yong Park +115 vs. Tafon Nchukwi -145
Featherweight - Michael Trizano +194 vs. Ludovít Klein -250
Welterweight - Donald Cerrone vs. TBA
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