Gabriel Bonfim is heavily favored against Nicolas Dalby at UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis on Saturday, November 4 in São Paulo, Brazil. This event is one of 14 fights on ESPN+. Bonfim is 15-0 in his career, while Dalby is 22-4-1 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis. Let’s look at the bout between Bonfim and Dalby and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis takes place at the Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil on Saturday, November 4 with 14 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Betting
Gabriel Bonfim (15-0, 2-0 UFC)
Bonfim came into the UFC with a record of 13-0 and he has two wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Mounir Lazzez by guillotine choke submission and Trevin Giles by guillotine choke submission. Bonfim has been a pro since 2014 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and 12 by submission. He has eight first round finishes.
Bonfim said this to sherdog.com about his upcoming fight against Dalby, “He has a lot of fights on his record, and he’s been in the UFC for a long time. He’s faced many top fighters, including some from Brazil, but now it’s my turn to ascend in the organization. I’m not here to mess around or lose. I work every day to be a champion. It’s who I’ll be. It doesn’t matter if he tries to beat me on points or by finish; he won’t win. I’m ready for whatever comes.”
Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1, 6-3-1 UFC)
Dalby came into the UFC with a record of 13-0 and he has six wins, three losses, and one draw in the UFC. He defeated Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by split decision, Alex Oliveira by unanimous decision, Daniel Rodriguez by unanimous decision, Cláudio Silva by unanimous decision, Warlley Alves by split decision, and Muslim Salikhov by unanimous decision; while losing to Zak Cummings by unanimous decision, Peter Sobotta by unanimous decision, and Tim Means by unanimous decision; and fighting to a draw against Darren Till. Dalby has been a pro since 2010 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Bonfim 6.08 /Dalby 3.93
Striking Accuracy: Bonfim 37% /Dalby 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Bonfim 4.80/Dalby 3.39
Defense: Bonfim 66% /Dalby 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Bonfim 4.80/Dalby 1.18
Takedown Accuracy: Bonfim 100%/Dalby 31%
Takedowns defended: Bonfim 100%/Dalby 562%
Submission average: Bonfim 7.2/Dalby 0.1
UFC Picks
Just how good is Bonfim? That is ultimately the question that you have to answer if you have any thought of laying the big price. Bonfim has looked really good with two first-round submission wins to begin his UFC career. He has now won all 15 of his fights, all of them coming inside the distance. Dalby has won three straight and he is 5-2 in the UFC. He is the older of the two fighters, but he is still a good fighter and he has a well-rounded game.
The first thing that stands out about this fight is the price. It is really rare to see a favorite of this price in the UFC, especially on a fighter who has limited UFC experience. It seems that everyone is giving this fight to Bonfim, but I am not laying 7-1 on anyone. I don’t know that Dalby has much of a chance, but the price at 7-1 on Bonfim is ridiculously high.
We know that Bonfim has finished all 15 of his fights but the rounds total is listed at 1.5 with the under at -150. That number seems really low to me considering Bonfim has not faced much top competition in his career. Bonfim will probably get this win but Darby has proven to be a tough fighter throughout his career and I don’t think he will just roll over in this fight. I’ll go over the rounds total of 1.5 at plus money.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 11/04 |
Derrick Lewis |
+337 |
| Jailton Almeida |
-475 |
| 11/04 |
Nicolas Dalby |
+456 |
| Gabriel Bonfim |
-700 |
| 11/04 |
Don'Tale Mayes |
+150 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento |
-190 |
| 11/04 |
Abus Magomedov |
+211 |
| Caio Borralho |
-275 |
| 11/04 |
Armen Petrosyan |
-115 |
| Rodolfo Vieira |
-115 |
| 11/04 |
Vinc Pichel |
+337 |
| Ismael Bonfim |
-475 |
| 11/04 |
Elves Brener |
-165 |
| Esteban Ribovics |
+131 |
| 11/04 |
Daniel Marcos |
-250 |
| Victor Hugo |
+194 |
| 11/04 |
Elizeu Zaleski |
+267 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov |
-360 |
| 11/04 |
Modestas Bukauskas |
+179 |
| Vitor Petrino |
-230 |
| 11/04 |
Angela Hill |
+105 |
| Denise Gomes |
-135 |
| 11/04 |
Montserrat Ruiz |
+379 |
| Eduarda Moura |
-550 |
| 11/04 |
Kaue Fernandes |
+115 |
| Marc Diakiese |
-145 |
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