Islam Makhachev is a big favorite to defeat Thiago Moises at UFC Fight Night: Makchaev vs. Moises on Saturday, July 17 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is the headliner of the main card on ESPN and ESPN+. Makhachev is 19-1 in his career, while Moises is 15-4. There are a total of five fights on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises and seven preliminary bouts, with all of the fights being shown on ESPN and ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Makhachev and Moises and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 17 with five fights on the main card and seven preliminary bouts, with all of the fights on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises Betting
Islam Makhachev (19-1, 8-1 UFC)
Makhachev came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has eight wins and one loss in the UFC. In his last five fights he is 5-0. He is coming off a submission win against Drew Dober in March. Makhachev won a unanimous decision against Davi Ramos in September of 2019, won a unanimous decision against Arman Tsarukyan in April of 2019, won by submission against Kajan Johnson in July of 2018 and knocked out Gleison Tibau in January of 2018. Makhachev has been a pro since 2010 and he has three wins by knockout and eight by submission. He has six first round finishes.
Thiago Moises (15-4, 4-2 UFC)
Moises came into the UFC with a record of 11-2 and he has four wins and two losses in the UFC. He is 4-1 in his last five fights. He is coming off a unanimous decision win against Alexander Hernandez in February. Moises won a unanimous decision against Bobby Green in October of last year, won by submission against Michael Johnson in May of last year, lost a unanimous decision to Damir Ismagulov in August of 2019, and won a unanimous decision against Kurt Holobaugh in May of 2019. Moises has been a pro since 2012 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Makhachev 2.00 / Moises 2.85
Striking Accuracy: Makhachev 56% / Moises 37%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Makhachev 0.77 / Moises 3.88
Defense: Makhachev 70% / Moises 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Makhachev 3.46 / Moises 1.06
Takedown Accuracy: Makhachev 68% / Moises 33%
Takedowns defended: Makhachev 93% / Moises 63%
Submission average: Makhachev 1.0 / Moises 1.2
UFC Picks
There does not seem to be much doubt about who is going to win this fight, as Makhachev is about a 7-1 favorite. He is considered the next Khabib Nurmagomedov and that is extremely high praise. We know that Makhachev is good, but we don’t yet know whether he is great. The problem he has had is that no one ones to fight him. Moises is taking a shot and he at least has some skills that give him a minor chance. The best chance for Moises in this fight would seem to be on the mat, but it would take a major mistake for Moises to get an opening. If you look at the stats for this fight you will see that they are eye opening. Makhachev simply doesn’t get hit and he almost never gets taken down. He controls every fight and usually finds a way to finish. Moises is likely going to the mat early and a submission win by Makhachev is likely.
I am definitely not laying 7-1 on anyone, so I will look at two other bets. I think Makhachev could definitely get a submission and we get a juicy price of +350, so I will take that as one bet. I also would be surprised if this fight goes the distance, so I will take the fight under the distance at +110.
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises Card & Odds
Lightweight - Thiago Moises +456 vs. Islam Makhachev -700
Women's Bantamweight - Miesha Tate -147 vs. Marion Reneau +117
Middleweight - Dustin Stoltzfus +172 vs. Rodolfo Vieira -220
Lightweight - Jeremy Stephens +175 vs. Mateusz Gamrot -225
Bantamweight - Sergey Morozov +127 vs. Khalid Taha -160
Flyweight - Malcolm Gordon +228 vs. Francisco Figueiredo -300
Bantamweight - Anderson dos Santos +143 vs. Miles Johns -180
Women's Strawweight - Montserrat Ruiz +365 vs. Amanda Lemos -525
Heavyweight - Alan Baudot +261 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento -350
Featherweight - Gabriel Benítez -180 vs. Billy Quarantillo +143
Welterweight - Preston Parsons +207 vs. Daniel Rodriguez -270
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