No. 4 middleweight contender Jack Hermansson (21-5, 11 KOs, 6 SUBs) squares off against rising prospect Marvin Vettori (15-4, 2 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori this Saturday, December 5, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 10pm ET. Also on the card is a light heavyweight contest featuring longtime veteran Ovince St. Preux (25-14, 12 KOs, 8 SUBs) and undefeated prospect Jamahal Hill (7-0, 3 KOs). Let’s break down the main event matchup between Hermansson and Vettori and get to your best online betting options.
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Jack Hermansson (21-5, 11 KOs, 6 SUBs)
It must be frustrating for Hermasson to be so close, yet so far away from the title mix. The No. 4 middleweight has been putting in good work over the years, notching a 5-1 record in his past six with big wins over Jacare Souza and most recently, Kelvin Gastelum. The loss to Jared Cannonier during that time has aged well, consider that The Killa Gorilla just fought in a title eliminator. That has placed the Swede only behind Whittaker, Costa and Cannonier in the rankings - striking distance of a championship match. But it’s not coming anytime soon: for starters, Adesanya is looking to fight for the light heavyweight title and secondly, there really isn’t a big push to get him one.
Originally, The Joker was scheduled to meet Darren Till in a key matchup with title implications. Now, he’s fighting a relative unknown in a high risk, low reward situation. Hermansson has shown the ability to take a fight anywhere, but it’s clear that his best path to victory here is through his grappling. Over the years, Hermansson has developed a high level GNP approach that can reliably grind out wins. Putting a young gun like Vettori on his back makes sense.
Marvin Vettori (15-4, 2 KOs, 9 SUBs)
It’s a bit surprising that Vettori opened as a -135 favorite against the higher-ranked Hermansson. But there’s no denying that the dude has put in some solid work as of late: a three-fight winning streak over solid opponents in Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez and Karl Roberson. Prior to that, he gave current champion Israel Adesanya an extremely tough fight en route to losing a split decision. That loss has only raised his profile as The Last Stylebender has emerged as an undefeated superstar.
Just 27 years old, Vettori has evolved quickly inside the octagon. Debuting as a raw, unrefined talent, the Italian relied on his power and athleticism for wins. But he’s found an identity as an aggressive pressure fighter, mixing high volume striking with solid takedowns. He’s also got a youthful confidence - Vettori has yet to be stopped - which makes him even more dangerous. This kid is all too happy to trade combinations or hunt for submissions. Either way he can do a lot of damage in a short amount of time.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Hermansson 4.9 / Vettori 4.05
Striking accuracy: Hermansson 56% / Vettori 41%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Hermansson 1.77 / Vettori 2.85
Striking defense: Hermansson 64% / Holland 66%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Hermansson 2.38 / Vettori 1.43
Takedown accuracy: Hermansson 47% / Vettori 45%
Takedown defense: Hermansson 73% / Vettori 80%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Hermansson 0.89 / Holland 0.63
UFC Picks
We like the underdog odds you can get on the more experienced fighter. Vettori has looked excellent lately, but we really don’t see why he would be the favorite here. There’s also the fact that he’s getting pulled from another card to fight sooner than scheduled. The Italian is going to come out guns blazing, but we expect Hermansson to weather the storm and steadily gain the upper hand. It’s doubtful that he scores the finish, but Hermansson should have a clear advantage in points when the fight ends.
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Card & Odds
Middleweight - Jack Hermansson +121 vs. Marvin Vettori -146
Heavyweight - Jake Collier +165 vs. Gian Villante -201
Women’s Strawweight - Montana De La Rosa +184 vs. Talia Santos -225
Bantamweight - Cody Durden +138 vs. Jimmy Flick -166
Light Heavyweight - John Allan Arte +165 vs. Roman Dolidze -201
Featherweight - Damon Jackson +210 vs. Ilia Topuria -259
Light Heavyweight - Ovince St. Preux +138 vs. Jamahal Hill -166
Featherweight - Nate Landwehr +480 vs. Movsar Evloev -678
Bantamweight - Jose Quinonez +123 vs. Louis Smolka -147
Featherweight - Justin Jaynes +177 vs. Gabriel Benitez -215
Lightweight - Matt Wiman +303 vs. Jordan Leavitt -390
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