Jailton Almeida is heavily favored against Derrick Lewis at UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis on Saturday, November 4 in São Paulo, Brazil. This event is one of 14 fights on ESPN+. Almeida is 19-2 in his career, while Lewis is 27-11 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis. Let’s look at the bout between Almeida and Lewis and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis takes place at the Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil on Saturday, November 4 with 14 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Betting
Jailton Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC)
Almeida came into the UFC with a record of 14-2 and he has five wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Danilo Marques by TKO, Parker Porter by rear-naked choke submission, Anton Turkalj by rear-naked choke submission, Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik by rear-naked choke submission. Almeida’s last loss in his career was against Bruno Assis by unanimous decision in January of 2018. Almeida has been a pro since 2012 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and 12 by submission. He has 14 first round finishes.
Derrick Lewis (27-11, 18-9 UFC)
Lewis came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and he has 18 wins and nine losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has two wins and four losses. He defeated Chris Daukaus by KO and Marcos Rogério de Lima by TKO; while losing to Ciryl Gane by TKO, Tai Tuivasa by KO, Sergei Pavlovich by TKO, and Sergey Spivak by arm-triangle choke submission. Lewis has been a pro since 2010 and he has 22 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Almeida 3.81 /Lewis 2.60
Striking Accuracy: Almeida 64% /Lewis 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Almeida 0.30/Lewis 2.59
Defense: Almeida 25% /Lewis 41%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Almeida 6.40/Lewis 0.59
Takedown Accuracy: Almeida 68%/Lewis 28%
Takedowns defended: Almeida 50%/Lewis 52%
Submission average: Almeida 2.5/Lewis 0.0
UFC Picks
Based on the UFC odds, this fight should end quickly with Almeida getting the finish. Almeida has been on a serious roll, winning his last 14 fights. Lewis is not without a chance in this fight, as he is known for big-time knockout power. A fighter who has knockout power always has a chance, but Almeida is definitely the better overall fighter. The question in this fight is how we proceed in what most people think will be an easy win for Almeida.
The two fighters are ranked in the top ten of the UFC heavyweight division, but Almeida is expected to progress further in the rankings. Lewis, on the other hand, is a dangerous and experienced fighter who has a history of delivering emphatic knockouts.
Ultimately, the outcome of the bout will be determined by Almeida's superior grappling skills. Unless Lewis is able to land an early knockout, it is likely that Almeida will get the win.
The odds on this fight make it very difficult to find a pick. I don’t lay big prices and the price on Almeida is more than 4-1 so taking him to win outright is too expensive for me. I would normally play the rounds of 1.5 to go under, but I am not laying nearly 4-1 on that price and right now the odds of the fight going under 1.5 round at BookMaker have the under at -370. The only options left are to look at some of the props for each fighter to win. Since this fight is likely to end by finish you could take a flyer on Lewis to win by knockout or you could take Almeida to win by finish. I lean to the second of those options, as Almedia should find a way to finish Lewis and it is likely to be an early finish.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 11/04 |
Derrick Lewis |
+337 |
| Jailton Almeida |
-475 |
| 11/04 |
Nicolas Dalby |
+456 |
| Gabriel Bonfim |
-700 |
| 11/04 |
Don'Tale Mayes |
+150 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento |
-190 |
| 11/04 |
Abus Magomedov |
+211 |
| Caio Borralho |
-275 |
| 11/04 |
Armen Petrosyan |
-115 |
| Rodolfo Vieira |
-115 |
| 11/04 |
Vinc Pichel |
+337 |
| Ismael Bonfim |
-475 |
| 11/04 |
Elves Brener |
-165 |
| Esteban Ribovics |
+131 |
| 11/04 |
Daniel Marcos |
-250 |
| Victor Hugo |
+194 |
| 11/04 |
Elizeu Zaleski |
+267 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov |
-360 |
| 11/04 |
Modestas Bukauskas |
+179 |
| Vitor Petrino |
-230 |
| 11/04 |
Angela Hill |
+105 |
| Denise Gomes |
-135 |
| 11/04 |
Montserrat Ruiz |
+379 |
| Eduarda Moura |
-550 |
| 11/04 |
Kaue Fernandes |
+115 |
| Marc Diakiese |
-145 |
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