A middleweight fight between Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum will headline UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum on Saturday, August 21 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Cannonier is 13-5 but he has not fought in almost a year, as he was beaten by Robert Whittaker last October. Gastelum is 16-7 in his career and he has lost four of his last five fights. There are five fights on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum and seven fights on the preliminary card. All 12 fights can be seen on ESPN 2 and ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Cannonier and Gastelum and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, August 21 with five fights on the main card and seven on the preliminary card with all 12 bouts on ESPN 2 and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Betting
Jared Cannonier (13-5, 6-5 UFC)
Cannonier came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has six wins and five losses in the UFC. In his last five fights he is 3-2. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Robert Whittaker in October of last year. Cannonier won by TKO against Jack Hermansson in September of 2019, won by TKO against Anderson Silva in May of 2019, won by TKO against David Branch in November of 2018 and lost by TKO to Dominick Reyes in May of 2018. Cannonier has been a pro since 2011 and he has nine wins by KO/TKO and two by submission. He has seven first round finishes.
Cannonier has been up and down in the UFC with six wins and five losses. He had a chance to move up in the rankings but couldn’t handle Whittaker last year.
Kelvin Gastelum (16-7, 11-7 UFC)
Gastelum came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he 11 wins and seven losses in the UFC. He is 1-4 in his last five fights. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Robert Whittaker in April. He won by unanimous decision against Ian Heinisch in February, lost by submission to Jack Hermansson in July of last year, lost a split decision to Darren Till in November of 2019 and lost a unanimous decision to Israel Adesanya in April of 2019. Gastelum has been a pro since 2010 and he has six wins by KO/TKO and four wins by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Gastelum has struggled in his last five fights, winning just once. Gastelum usually beats the fighters he is supposed to beat and loses to superior fighters. The question you have to ask yourself in this fight is whether or not Cannonier is a superior fighter.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Cannonier 3.70 / Gastelum 3.52
Striking Accuracy: Cannonier 52% / Gastelum 42%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Cannonier 3.09 / Gastelum 3.24
Defense: Cannonier 64% / Gastelum 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Cannonier 0.16 / Gastelum 1.16
Takedown Accuracy: Cannonier 33% / Gastelum 37%
Takedowns defended: Cannonier 54% / Gastelum 62%
Submission average: Cannonier 0.0 / Gastelum 0.1
UFC Picks
The odds on this fight favor Cannonier, but not by a lot, as Cannonier is listed as a -150 favorite. I said earlier that the question we have to answer is whether or not Cannonier is a top fighter. Gastelum takes care of fighters who are below his skill level and struggles against top fighters. Cannonier has basically been a .500 fighter in the UFC and that means he is not yet a superior fighter. The odds suggest that these two fighters are closely matched and I agree with that assessment and that immediately gives Gastelum some value at +124. I don’t know that this is the best matchup for Cannonier, as Gastelum has the ability to get this fight to the mat and win by submission. I will take the plus money and look for Gastelum to get the win.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Card & Odds
Middleweight - Kelvin Gastelum +124 vs. Jared Cannonier -155
Flyweight - Brandon Royval +143 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -180
Bantamweight - Domingo Pilarte +139 vs. Brian Kelleher -175
Light Heavyweight - Fabio Cherant +150 vs. William Knight -190
Heavyweight - Parker Porter +161 vs. Chase Sherman -205
Lightweight - Austin Hubbard -115 vs. Vinc Pichel -115
Featherweight - Austin Lingo +105 vs. Luis Saldana -135
Lightweight - Clay Guida +135 vs. Mark O. Madsen -170
Welterweight - Ramiz Brahimaj -130 vs. Sasha Palatnikov +100
Women's Bantamweight - Josiane Nunes +124 vs. Bea Malecki -155
Lightweight - Roosevelt Roberts -150 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +120
Middleweight - Antonio Braga Neto +105 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -135
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