UFC Fight Night - Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo Odds

Jennifer Maia is a slight favorite against Viviane Araujo at UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza on Saturday, October 14 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 12 fights on ESPN+. Maia is 21-9-1 in her career, including 6-5 in the UFC, while Araujo is 11-5 in her career, including 5-4 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza. Let’s look at the bout between Maia and Araujo and UFC predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, October 14 with 12 fights, all on ESPN+.

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza Betting

Jennifer Maia (21-9-1, 6-5 UFC)

Maia came into the UFC with a record of 15-4-1 and she has six wins and five losses in the UFC. She defeated Alexis Davis by unanimous decision, Roxanne Modafferi by unanimous decision, Joanne Calderwood by armbar submission, Jessica Eye by unanimous decision, Maryna Moroz by unanimous decision, and Casey O'Neill by unanimous decision; while losing to Liz Carmouche by unanimous decision, Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision, Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision, Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision, and Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision. Maia has been a pro since 2009 and she has four wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. She has six first round finishes.

Viviane Araujo (11-5, 5-4 UFC)

Araujo came into the UFC with a record of 6-1 and she has five wins and four losses in the UFC. She defeated Talita Bernardo by KO, Alexis Davis by unanimous decision, Montana De La Rosa by unanimous decision, Roxanne Modafferi by unanimous decision, and Andrea Lee by unanimous decision; while losing to Jessica Eye by unanimous decision, Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision, Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision, and Amanda Ribas by unanimous decision. Araujo has been a pro since 2015 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. She has four first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Maia 4.50 /Araujo 4.63

Striking Accuracy: Maia 38% /Araujo 47%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Maia 4.78/Araujo 5.45

Defense: Maia 55% /Araujo 55%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Maia 0.27/Araujo 1.81

Takedown Accuracy: Maia 21%/Araujo 48%

Takedowns defended: Maia 57%/Araujo 82%

Submission average: Maia 0.1/Araujo 0.6

UFC Picks

Maia is a slight favorite in this fight, but I don’t see much difference overall between the two fighters. There is no question that Arajuo has more skill on the mat and it could be that is where the value lies when making a UFC pick. Araujo has been decent in takedowns at 48% of her attempts. Maia has been okay at takedown defense at 57% but you have to think that Arajuo is eventually going to get this fight to the mat.

Maia’s last fight was against Casey O’Neill, and she won by a unanimous decision in the third round. O’Neill landed 137 of the 264 significant strikes she landed in that fight. Maia landed 151 of the 355 total strikes she landed that night. Araujo's last fight was against Amanda Ribas, and she lost by a unanimous decision.

Normally I would play the rounds to go over the total in this fight, as neither of these fighters is known for their finishing ability but I am not laying -450 and that is the price for the rounds to go over 2.5. This fight is really a coin flip, so there is at least some value on Araujo at +120. I would lean that way in this fight simply because of the price. There may be more value, however, on taking her to win by submission. I know that she doesn’t have great finishing power, but I think she has at least a shot at getting the win by submission in this fight and we should get a big price on that UFC betting prop.

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza Card & Odds

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