Karl Williams is favored against Justin Tafa at UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas on Saturday, March 23 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 13 fights on ESPN and ESPN+. Williams is 9-1 in his career, including 2-0 in the UFC, while Tafa is 7-3 in his career, including 4-3 in the UFC. Tafa will be stepping in on short notice, as he takes the place of his brother Junior Tafa. Justin will be stepping in with just three week’s prep time. There are a total of 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas. Let’s look at the bout between Williams and Tafa and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 23 with 13 fights, all on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Betting
Karl Williams (9-1, 2-0 UFC)
Williams came into the UFC with a record of 7-1 and he has two wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Lukasz Brzeski by unanimous decision and Chase Sherman by unanimous decision. Williams’ only loss in his career was against Jason Butcher by triangle choke submission in December of 2021. Williams has been a pro since 2021 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and six by decision. He has two first round finishes.
Williams said that taking on a new fighter on short notice is definitely different. “I think it's a good matchup to test myself with the new opponent.” Williams said to the media, “Good striking, grappling is kind of there, but the striking is you got to be careful. And it's heavyweight. So everybody, we all got power in our hands. You could put somebody down or wobble somebody at any moment. So yeah, good striker. More of a boxer, so just gotta be ready for that.”
Justin Tafa (7-3, 4-3 UFC)
Tafa came into the UFC with a record of 3-0 and he has four wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Juan Adams by TKO, Harry Hunsucker by KO, Parker Porter by KO, and Austen Lane by KO; while losing to Yorgan De Castro by KO, Carlos Felipe by split decision, and Jared Vanderaa by unanimous decision. Tafa has been a pro since 2018 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO. He has five first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Williams 2.93 /Tafa 5.13
Striking Accuracy: Williams 49% /Tafa 55%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Williams 1.80/Tafa 5.93
Defense: Williams 62% /Tafa 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Williams 4.00/Tafa 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Williams 46%/Tafa 0%
Takedowns defended: Williams 100%/Tafa 100%
Submission average: Williams 0.0/Tafa 0.0
UFC Picks
Williams won on Season 6 of Dana White’s Contender Series and then got decision wins against Lukasz Brzeski and Chase Sherman. Tafa has three first-round stoppage wins in his last four fights. This is a match-up between a striker and a wrestler, as Williams will be looking for a wrestling match with Tafa, while Tafa will be looking for the big KO. Williams has excellent wrestling, though his cardio is somewhat questionable. Tafa, on the other hand, is a very big, strong fighter who is difficult to take down.
Williams is listed as a -180 UFC betting favorite to win this fight. The question is whether or not Williams can get this fight to the mat. We know that Tafa will be looking for the quick knockout and Williams may not have what it takes to defend the big strikes and get this fight to the ground. I think there is some value in taking Tafa to win this fight at plus money. If you want to go out on a limb a little further, I think you can take a shot on a knockout when the UFC betting props for this fight come out. We're likely to see Tafa at +200 or better to win by knockout and that's worth a shot.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 03/23 | Rose Namajunas | -255 |
| Amanda Ribas | +197 |
| 03/23 | Justin Tafa | +143 |
| Karl Williams | -180 |
| 03/23 | AJ Dobson | +150 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | -190 |
| 03/23 | Cameron Saaiman | +124 |
| Payton Talbott | -155 |
| 03/23 | Luis Pajuelo | +131 |
| Fernando Padilla | -165 |
| 03/23 | Kurt Holobaugh | +118 |
| Trey Ogden | -148 |
| 03/23 | Ricardo Ramos | -153 |
| Julian Erosa | +122 |
| 03/23 | Jarno Errens | +150 |
| Steven Nguyen | -190 |
| 03/23 | Montserrat Rendon | +171 |
| Darya Zheleznyakova | -218 |
| 03/23 | Mohammed Usman | +118 |
| Mick Parkin | -148 |
| 03/23 | Cody Gibson | +115 |
| Miles Johns | -145 |
| 03/23 | André Lima | -185 |
| Igor Severino | +146 |
| 03/23 | Youssef Zalal | +127 |
| Billy Quarantillo | -160 |
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