A middleweight bout between Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland headlines UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Vettori has won his last four bouts, including a unanimous decision win over Jack Hermannson last time out in December. Holland had won five in a row before losing to Derek Brunson just a few weeks ago. Holland will be tying the record for the fastest turnaround between UFC headline fights. There are a total of six fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland. There are also a total of nine fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let's look at the bout between Vettori and Holland and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland Betting
Marvin Vettori (16-4-1, 6-2-1 UFC)
Vettori came into the UFC with a record of 10-2 and he has gone 6-2-1 in the UFC. He has 2 wins by knockout and 9 by submission. Vettori is coming off a unanimous decision win against Jack Hermannson in December of last year. Vettori won by submission against Karl Roberson in June of last year, won by unanimous decision against Andrew Sanchez in October of 2019, won by unanimous decision against Cezar Ferreira in July of 2019 and lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya in April of 2018.
Kevin Holland (21-6, 8-3 UFC)
Holland came into the UFC with a record of 13-3 and he has gone 8-3 in the UFC. He has 12 knockout wins and 5 submission wins. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Derek Brunson on March 20. He had previously knocked out Ronaldo Souza in December of last year, won by TKO against Charlie Ontiveros in October of last year, won a split decision against Darren Stewart in September of last year and won by TKO against Joaquin Buckley in August of last year.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Vettori 4.78/ Holland 4.14
Striking Accuracy: Vettori 45% / Holland 56%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Vettori 3.19/ Holland 2.58
Defense: Vettori 66% / Holland 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Vettori 1.33/ Holland 1.08
Takedown Accuracy: Vettori 45% / Holland 45%
Takedowns defended: Vettori 78% / Holland 51%
Submission average: Vettori 0.80 / Holland 0.7
UFC Picks
I agree with the UFC rankings that Vettori is a better fighter than Holland, but it is pretty close. Vettori is ranked No. 6 and Holland is ranked No. 10. I make the odds on this fight closer to Vettori in the -160 range and yet he is a 3-1 favorite. I don't see it. Yes, Vettori has looked good in recent fights, but Holland had been rolling along until his fight against Brunson. Maybe Vettori does win this fight, but I am sure not laying 3-1 on him, as I think Holland has a real chance to win. I also think the rounds are worth playing. Holland just fought a few weeks ago, so he can't afford for this fight to be going the distance. The odds on this fight not going the distance are listed at -160 and I think that is the best bet in this fight. A flyer on Holland to win by knockout is also worth a shot at odds of 5-1.
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland Card & Odds
Middleweight - Kevin Holland +252 vs. Marvin Vettori -318
Women's Strawweight - Nina Ansaroff -142 vs. Mackenzie Dern +118
Heavyweight - Jarjis Danho +228 vs. Yorgan De Castro -284
Lightweight - John Makdessi +154 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes -186
Featherweight - Arnold Allen +110 vs. Sodiq Yusuff -134
Welterweight - Mike Perry +138 vs. Daniel Rodriguez -166
Middleweight - Kyle Daukaus -102 vs. Aliaskhab Khizriev -122
Featherweight - Jordan Griffin +113 vs. Luis Saldana -137
Bantamweight - Hunter Azure +134 vs. Jack Shore -162
Lightweight - Jim Miller +188 vs. Joe Solecki -230
Welterweight - Impa Kasanganay -293 vs. Sasha Palatnikov +235
Middleweight - Sam Alvey +158 vs. Julian Marquez -191
Lightweight - Scott Holtzman +193 vs. Mateusz Gamrot -235
Middleweight - Da Un Jung -142 vs. William Knight +118
Women's Bantamweight - Erin Blanchfield +203 vs. Norma Dumont -250
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