Louis Smolka is slightly favored against Jose Alberto Quinonez at UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos on Saturday, November 14 in Las Vegas Nevada. This event is one of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Smolka is 16-7 in his career, while Quinonez is 8-4 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos, with the headliner a bout between Paul Felder and Rafael dos Anjos. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Smolka and Quinonez and UFC picks.
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Louis Smolka (16-7, 7-7 UFC)
Smolka came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has seven wins and seven losses in the UFC. In his last four fights, he has two wins and two losses. He defeated Su Mudaerji by armbar submission and Ryan McDonald by TKO; while losing to Matt Schnell by triangle choke submission and Casey Kenney by guillotine choke submission. Smolka has been a pro since 2012 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has four first round finishes.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4, 5-3 UFC)
Quinonez came into the UFC with a record of 3-1 and he has five wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Leonardo Morales by rear-naked choke submission, Joey Gomez by unanimous decision, Diego Rivas by unanimous decision, Teruto Ishihara by unanimous decision, and Carlos Huachin by unanimous decision; while losing to Alejandro Pérez by unanimous decision, Nathaniel Wood by rear-naked choke submission, and Sean O'Malley by TKO. Quinonez has been a pro since 2013 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Smolka 4.25/ Quinonez 3.41
Striking Accuracy: Smolka 46% / Quinonez 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Smolka 3.62/ Quinonez 2.58
Defense: Smolka 52% / Quinonez 66%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Smolka 1.61/ Quinonez 2.58
Takedown Accuracy: Smolka 34% / Quinonez 45%
Takedowns defended: Smolka 30% / Quinonez 50%
Submission average: Smolka 2.0/ Quinonez 0.7
UFC Picks
This fight is the consummate toss-up. Smolka has split his 14 UFC fights, winning seven and losing seven. Quinonez is slightly better at 5-3 in the UFC. Smolka has been known as a finisher in his career, with 14 of his 16 wins coming by KO, TKO or submission. Quinonez has been more of the grinder, with only three of his eight wins coming by finish. This fight has all the looks of a grind it out affair with neither fighter getting a big advantage. I give a slight edge to Quinonez simply because of the value in the betting odds, but I think the better choice is to play the rounds to go over the total.
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos Card & Odds
Lightweight - Paul Felder +162 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos -196
Welterweight - Khaos Williams +191 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -235
Bantamweight - Jose Alberto Quinonez +103 vs. Louis Smolka -127
Women’s Strawweight - Cory McKenna +184 vs. Kay Hansen -225
Women’s Strawweight - Ashley Yoder +108 vs. Miranda Granger -132
Middleweight - Saparbek Safarov +228 vs. Julian Marquez -284
Middleweight - Antonio Arroyo +134 vs. Eryk Anders -162
Heavyweight - Roque Martinez +191 vs. Don’Tale Mayes -235
Welterweight - Rhys McKee +158 vs. Alex Morono -191
Bantamweight - Geraldo de Freitas +138 vs. Tony Gravely -166
Women's Strawweight - Randa Markos +154 vs. Kanako Murata -186
Catchweight - Sean Strickland -109 vs. Brendan Allen -115
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