Veteran UFC heavyweight Marcin Tybura (20-6, 7 KOs, 6 SUBs) meets former Dallas Cowboy-turned-UFC-prospect Greg Hardy (7-2, 6 KOs) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal this Saturday, December 19 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET. In the main event, two-time welterweight title challenger Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson (15-4, 7 KOs, 1 SUB) squares off against the rising Geoff Neal (13-2, 8 KOs, 2 SUBs). Let's take a look at the UFC betting odds for Hardy vs. Tybura and break down your best online betting options.
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Greg Hardy (7-2, 6 KOs)
The training wheels are finally starting to come off for Hardy - the UFC can't feed him scrubs forever. It was unfair to expect that he would start dropping bodies after just three regional fights, and the brass has done well to let him develop slowly. His first three fights told us nothing except that he was raw and that he could hit hard. His last four have been more telling, as three have gone to decision and one came against a top 10 guy in Alexander Volkov.
It's clear that Hardy is improving. He's no longer a guy that just counts on bullrushes to knock guys out - that approach failed him miserably in his UFC debut. There is still scary power lurking in his punches, but Hardy is now much more patient as he recognizes the need to conserve his energy. We can't fault him for fighting cautiously, but at some point we'd love to see what a 100% confident Hardy could do. That's always been the most intriguing part about him: he's an all-world athlete that could do some serious damage some day. Of course, he might never be more than a mid-level guy too.
Marcin Tybura (20-6, 7 KOs, 6 SUBs)
In his four years in the UFC, Tybura has put together a 8-4 UFC record. Not bad, but not great. Despite some decent wins over fighters like Andrei Arlovski, Stefans Struve and Ben Rothwell - Tybura is a pretty forgettable heavyweight to be honest. A 1-4 slide where he was knocked out by Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai pretty much left him on the outside looking in, but his current three-fight win streak shows that the Polish big man can still be an effective midtier guy. Sure, his wins have come over the likes of Ben Rothwell and Sergey Spivak, but nobody expects Tybura to be a contender.
It's no surprise that Tybura hasn't really separated himself - there's really nothing about his game that's elite. Obviously, he's good enough to win more than he loses, thanks to his ability to wrestle and grind out wins. That's been his MO: outwrestle, control, win on points. Against big dudes that can defend takedowns and crack, Tybura is completely outclassed.
The Matchup:
Obviously, the question here is whether Tybura can wrap up Hardy and drag him to the ground. If he can reliably score takedowns, then we have no doubt that Tybura can eventually tire out Hardy. But Hardy is so much more athletic that it's plausible that he just brushes off the attempts.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Tybura 3.6 / Hardy 3.88
Striking accuracy: Tybura 52% / Hardy 45%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Tybura 2.99 / Hardy 2.41
Striking defense: Tybura 52% / Hardy 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minute: Tybura 1.61 / Hardy 0
Takedown accuracy: Tybura 61% / Hardy -
Takedown defense: Tybura 79% / Hardy 66%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Tybura 0.15 / Hardy 0
UFC Picks
We're really torn here. On one hand, Tybura is exactly the type of experienced veteran that should give a newbie like Hardy a ton of problems. On the other, Hardy is just so much more physically blessed than Tybura. In this case, we're leaning on Hardy's quickness and explosiveness - Tybura just doesn't have the strength to overwhelm him.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal Card & Odds
Welterweight - Geoff Neal -114 vs. Stephen Thompson -110
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy -127 vs. Marcin Tybura +103
Bantamweight - Rob Font +123 vs. Marlon Moraes -147
Bantamweight - Marlon Vera +117 vs. Jose Aldo -141
Welterweight - Khaos Williams -102 vs. Michel Pereira -122
Catchweight (195) - Deron Winn +127 vs. Antonio Arroyo -152
Women's Bantamweight - Pannie Kianzad +134 vs. Sijara Eubanks -162
Bantamweight - Aiemanna Zahabi +158 vs. Drako Rodriguez -191
Middleweight - Jamie Pickett +235 vs. Tafon Nchukwi -293
Lightweight - Carlton Minus +257 vs. Rick Glenn -323
Welterweight - Alex Morono +191 vs Anthony Pettis -235
Flyweight - Cody Durden +127 vs. Jimmy Flick -152
Women's Flyweight - Gillian Robertson -107 vs. Taila Santos -117
Middleweight - Karl Roberson -255 vs. Dalcha Lungiambula +207
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