Manel Kape is favored against Matheus Nicolau at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 on Saturday, January 13 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 12 fights on ESPN+. Nicolau is 19-3-1 in his career, including 7-2 in the UFC, while Kape is 19-6 in his career, including 4-2 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2. Let’s look at the bout between Nicolau and Kape and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, January 13 with 12 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker II Betting
Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, 7-2 UFC)
Nicolau came into the UFC with a record of 10-1-1 and he has seven wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Bruno Mesquita by Japanese necktie submission, John Moraga by split decision, Louis Smolka by unanimous decision, Manel Kape by split decision, Tim Elliott by unanimous decision, David Dvorák by unanimous decision, and Matt Schnell by KO; while losing to Dustin Ortiz by KO and Brandon Royval by KO. Nicolau has been a pro since 2010 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. He has four first round finishes.
Manel Kape (19-6, 4-2 UFC)
Kape came into the UFC with a record of 15-4 and he has four wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Ode' Osbourne by KO, Zhalgas Zhumagulov by TKO, David Dvorák by unanimous decision, and Felipe dos Santos by unanimous decision; while losing to Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision and Matheus Nicolau by split decision. Kape has been a pro since 2012 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Nicolau 3.66 /Kape 5.12
Striking Accuracy: Nicolau 53% /Kape 54%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Nicolau 3.14/Kape 4.51
Defense: Nicolau 66% /Kape 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Nicolau 1.48/Kape 0.65
Takedown Accuracy: Nicolau 45%/Kape 37%
Takedowns defended: Nicolau 93%/Kape 77%
Submission average: Nicolau 0.9/Kape 0.4
UFC Picks
Kape is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite to win this fight with the rounds listed at 2.5 with the over at -170. This will be the second meeting between Nicolau and Kape. They met in March of 2021 and it was Nicolau winning by split decision. Nicolau faced Brandon Royval last April and was knocked out, breaking a six-fight winning streak for Nicolau. Kape has won his last four fights and he is in the verge of breaking into the top five of the flyweight division.
The edge in striking goes to Kape, while the edge on the mat goes to Nicolau. The question is where this fight will be decided. If I had the confidence that Nicolau could get this fight to the mat, and keep it there, I would take a shot on the underdog at the nice price.
I think the rounds are the way to go in this fight. I know that Nicolau was knocked out last time out by Royval, and perhaps that knockout will make Nicolau a little more cautious. I am not entirely sold on Kape’s power anyway, as in the UFC, four of his six fights have gone to a decision. Four of the last six fights for Nicolau have also gone to a decision.
When these two met the first time they went to a decision and it was Nicolau winning by a very small margin. As I said earlier, if I thought that Nicolau could control this fight on the ground I would take a shot with him at plus money. He still might be worth a flyer at odds of more than 2-1, but I think the better option is to simply bet the rounds to go over the total. We have to lay -170 but the most likely scenario has this fight going the distance.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 01/13 |
Johnny Walker |
+365 |
| Magomed Ankalaev |
-525 |
| 01/13 |
Matheus Nicolau |
+204 |
| Manel Kape |
-265 |
| 01/13 |
Jim Miller |
-130 |
| Gabriel Benítez |
+100 |
| 01/13 |
Mario Bautista |
+146 |
| Ricky Simón |
-185 |
| 01/13 |
Brunno Ferreira |
-136 |
| Phil Hawes |
+106 |
| 01/13 |
Andrei Arlovski |
+456 |
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
-700 |
| 01/13 |
Gaston Bolanos |
+207 |
| Marcus McGhee |
-270 |
| 01/13 |
Taylor Lapilus |
+238 |
| Farid Basharat |
-315 |
| 01/13 |
Nikolas Motta |
+261 |
| Tom Nolan |
-350 |
| 01/13 |
Westin Wilson |
+566 |
| Jean Silva |
-950 |
| 01/13 |
Preston Parsons |
+110 |
| Matt Semelsberger |
-140 |
| 01/13 |
Felipe Bunes |
+183 |
| Joshua Van |
-235 |
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