Former light heavyweight champion and future hall of famer Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (26-11, 21 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet longtime veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9, 8 KOs, 6 SUBs) this Saturday, July 25, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The main card airs on ESPN starting 11pm ET, with a middleweight matchup between Robert Whittaker and Darren TIll serving as the main event. The prelims feature eight bouts on ESPN+.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Shogun Rua as a -200 favorite, with Nogueira at +158 on the comeback. Let’s get into the matchup, the stats and the best betting picks in the online sportsbook.
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Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (26-11, 21 KOs, 1 SUB)
Shogun’s place in the history books is secure. Over the course of a career that has spanned nearly two decades, Rua reached the pinnacle of MMA on multiple occasions. In 2005, he won the legendary Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, topping a young Rampage Jackson, a prime Antonio Minotoro Nogueira, pre-horsemeat Alistair Overeem and a scaryass Ricardo Arona. At the end of his Pride career, respected MMA media had him ranked as the best light heavyweight in the world.
While Shogun’s UFC career has been much rockier, the Brazilian did capture the light heavyweight championship - ending the Lyoto Machida “era” before it even got started. He was destroyed by a young Jon Jones in his first title defense, and it’s been generally downhill from there. The thing with Shogun is that he aged very, very quickly inside the octagon, only looking like the killer from Pride in brief flashes.
So how much does he have left? Shogun’s prime is squarely in the rearview mirror and fading away. There are moments where he can be dangerous, but it’s been a long time since Shogun got through three hard rounds without looking exhausted.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9, 8 KOs, 6 SUBs)
So you know all those questions about how much Shogun has left? Same for Nogueira, with twice as much emphasis. Nogueira is 44 years old and 2-4 in his past six. He’s fought just twice since 2016, and when he does the UFC is careful to match him up with limited guys like Sam Alvey. Even then, it’s tough for lil ‘Nog to get wins - he was knocked out in the first round by Ryan Spann in his last outing.
We’re really not sure what’s keeping him going, but it’s clear that he physically can’t hang with even the mid-tier of a thin division. At the end of the day, he can still box and has some savvy (he’s been doing this for nearly 20 years), but he’s also extremely limited with a cracked chin. That’s not a good combination fighting against guys that walk around at 230 pounds.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Rua 3.51 / Nogueira 2.74
Striking accuracy: Rua 52% / Nogueira 35%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Rua 4.13 / Nogueira 6.12
Striking Defense: Rua 55% / Nogueira 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Rua 1.74 / Nogueira 0.14
Takedown accuracy: Rua 42% / Nogueira 100%
Takedown defense: Rua 46% / Nogueira 63%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Rua 0.29 / Nogueira 0.28
UFC Picks
We’ve got two options for you here. The first is that the fight goes to decision. These two met in 2015 and grinded it out for three rounds. They’re more diminished now, which will make it harder for them to finish each other.
The other is that Nogueira wins. Peep their strikes absorbed stats: Rua takes over 4 hits a minute, but Nogueira gets rocked over six times per minute. At this point, it’ll be all about whoever scores more points, and that’ll be Rua.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till Card & Odds
Middleweight - Darren Till -108 vs. Robert Whittaker -123
Women's Bantamweight - Bethe Correia +118 vs. Pannie Kianzad -151
Heavyweight - Fabricio Werdum +263 vs. Alexander Gustafsson -354
Light Heavyweight - Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +149 vs. Mauricio Rua -190
Featherweight - Mike Grundy +158 vs. Movsar Evloev -200
Welterweight - Peter Sobotta +138 vs. Alex Oliveira -174
Heavyweight - Jake Collier +161 vs. Tom Aspinall -205
Welterweight - Jesse Ronson +214 vs. Nicolas Dalby -280
Light Heavyweight - Paul Craig -129 vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov -103
Women's Strawweight - Carla Esparza +145 vs. Marina Rodriguez -183
Lightweight - Jai Herbert +131 vs. Francisco Trinaldo -165
Welterweight - Niklas Stolze +289 vs. Ramazan Emeev -395
Heavyweight - Raphael Pessoa +195 vs. Tanner Boser -252
Bantamweight - John Castaneda +368 vs. Nathaniel Wood -533
Welterweight - Rhys McKee +669 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -1231
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