Max Holloway is heavily favored against Yair Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez on Saturday, November 13 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 15 fights on ESPN+. Holloway is 22-6 in his career, while Rodriguez is 13-2 in his career. There are a total of 15 fights on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez. Let’s look at the bout between Holloway and Rodriguez and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez takes place at UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 13 with 15 fights, all on ESPN+.
When: Saturday, November 13, 2021
Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
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Max Holloway (22-6, 18-6 UFC)
Holloway came into the UFC with a record 4-0 and he has 18 wins and six losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Brian Ortega by TKO, Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision, and Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision; while losing to Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision and twice against Alexander Volkanovski once by unanimous decision and once by split decision. Holloway has been a pro since 2010 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Yair Rodriguez (13-2, 8-1 UFC)
Rodriguez came into the UFC with a record of 5-1 and he has eight wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Leonardo Morales by unanimous decision, Charles Rosa by split decision, Dan Hooker by unanimous decision, Andre Fili by KO, Alex Caceres by split decision, B.J. Penn by TKO, Chan Sung Jung by KO, and Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision; while losing to Frankie Edgar by TKO. Rodriguez has been a pro since 2011 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Holloway 7.26 / Rodriguez 4.33
Striking Accuracy: Holloway 46% / Rodriguez 45%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Holloway 4.58 / Rodriguez 3.13
Defense: Holloway 60% / Rodriguez 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Holloway 0.21 / Rodriguez 0.90
Takedown Accuracy: Holloway 71% / Rodriguez 29%
Takedowns defended: Holloway 84% / Rodriguez 63%
Submission average: Holloway 0.3 / Rodriguez 0.9
UFC Picks
Holloway is a huge favorite in this fight and while I have a lot of respect for Holloway, I also think Rodriguez is a good fighter. I don’t lay big prices and I sure wouldn’t be laying 7-1 on Holloway in this fight. The question is whether or not Rodriguez is worth a flyer at big odds. We really don’t know whether Rodriguez is ready or not, as he hasn’t fought in over two years.
He has a decent resume in the UFC with an 8-1 record, but his list of victims isn’t anything special. I don’t know that I want to take a fighter off such a long layoff, even at the big price.
I think there could be some value on the rounds. There are various round props but the one I think offers the best value is 3.5 rounds. You can get over 3.5 rounds at a price of -150. Did you know that in 28 pro fights, Holloway has never been finished by strikes? He has lost just once by submission and that was in his UFC debut against Dustin Poirier in 2012.
Rodriguez has also shown that he is tough to finish. He has lost just once in the UFC and that was to Frankie Edgar. The doctor came in and stopped that fight after Rodriguez found himself on his back far too long which resulted in Edgar pounding on him.
I think the best choice in this fight is to play the rounds to go over the total. I think we are going to see a lot of action in this fight, but both fighters have proven to be very difficult to finish. Perhaps the fight goes the distance and we can get pick-em odds for that option, but I would rather get the extra round and a half and go over 3.5 rounds at -150.
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