UFC Fight Night - Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos Odds

Amanda Lemos is heavily favored against Michelle Waterson at UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez on Saturday, July 16 in Elmont, New York. This event is one of six fights on the main ABC/ ESPN+ card. Waterson is 18-9 in her career, while Lemos is 11-2-1 in her career. There are a total of 13 fights, with six on ABC/ESPN+ and seven on ESPN/ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez. Let’s look at the bout between Waterson and Lemos and UFC predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez takes place at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York on Saturday, July 16 with 13 fights, six on ABC/ESPN+ and seven on ESPN/ESPN+.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Betting

Michelle Waterson (18-9, 6-5 UFC)

Waterson came into the UFC with a record of 12-4 and she has six wins and five losses in the UFC. In her last six fights, she has three wins and three losses. She defeated Felice Herrig by unanimous decision, Karolina Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision, and Angela Hill by split decision; while losing to Joanna Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision, Carla Esparza by split decision, and Marina Rodriguez by unanimous decision. Waterson has been a pro since 2007 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and nine by submission. She has eight first round finishes.

Waterson said this to fansided.com about her upcoming fight against Lemos, “I know how to deal with her [Lemos] strengths. There's a lot of things I've been able to do in my UFC career, I've had fight of the nights, submissions of the night, fought on the main card, I want a knockout! I have an opponent in front of me that likes to stand and bang, so let's go!”

Amanda Lemos (11-2-1, 5-2 UFC)

Lemos came into the UFC with a record of 6-0-1 and she has five wins and two losses in the UFC. She defeated Miranda Granger by technical submission, Mizuki Inoue by unanimous decision, Lívia Renata Souza by TKO, Montserrat Ruiz by TKO, and Angela Hill by split decision; while losing to Leslie Smith by TKO and Jessica Andrade by standing arm-triangle choke submission. Lemos has been a pro since 2014 and she has seven wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. She has eight first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Waterson 3.57 / Lemos 5.14

Striking Accuracy: Waterson 48% / Lemos 57%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Waterson 4.13 / Lemos 4.42

Defense: Waterson 50% / Lemos 48%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Waterson 1.40 / Lemos 1.22

Takedown Accuracy: Waterson 32% / Lemos 57%

Takedowns defended: Waterson 67% / Lemos 88%

Submission average: Waterson 0.8 / Lemos 0.3

UFC Picks

My first thought is whether or not Lemos is really good enough to warrant being almost a 4-1 favorite in this fight. Waterson is not a pushover and yet the oddsmakers are putting a hefty price tag on Lemos. I don’t lay big prices, so I am not taking Lemos. The question is whether or not Waterson has a chance. My first inclination is to say yes, as Waterson has fought some very good fighters and at least been competitive. I don’t know that I put Lemos into the category of Esparza and Jedrzejczyk, two fighters who beat Waterson, and we already know that Lemos is coming off a loss to Andrade. The price on Waterson is tempting, but I think the rounds option is the way to go. We already heard from Waterson that she is going to go right at Lemos and we know that Lemos has finishing power. I think going under 2.5 rounds has some definite value because you can get almost 2-1 on the under. I don’t know that paying for the extra half a round is worth the prop on the fight not going to a decision, but that option is definitely there and you still get +150. The bottom line is that I’ll take the Waterson vs. Lemos to go under the rounds total.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Card & Odds

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