Miguel Baeza is slightly favored against Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai on Saturday, June 5 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of six fights on the main card on ESPN+. Baeza is 10-0 in his career, while Ponzinibbio is 27-4 in his career. There are a total of six fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai, with the headliner a bout between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Baeza and Ponzinibbio and UFC picks.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Betting
Miguel Baeza (10-0, 3-0 UFC)
Baeza came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has three wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Hector Aldana by TKO, Matt Brown by TKO, and Takashi Sato by arm-triangle choke submission. Baeza has been a pro since 2015 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has four first round finishes.
Baeza said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against Ponzinibbio, “This is definitely my biggest fight in terms of notoriety, but I try not to get too caught up in that because then the stage becomes too big. I’ve got Santiago Ponzinibbio and I’ve got to take him out, and perform as well as I can because then the next one will be a step in the right direction. I believe he’s going to be aggressive — he’s a tough guy, he uses his hands a lot, and he’s going to try to corral me, stay right in front of me so he can land big combinations. He throws fast and he throws hard, so I know he’s going to be trying to land some big bombs on me. He might be a little wary of the takedowns and try to implement his game plan, but our plan is to keep him at bay and pick him apart, and I feel like I can do that. I’m not going to say first round because he’s an experienced guy, but I think I can get a second-round finish.”
Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-4, 9-3 UFC)
Ponzinibbio came into the UFC with a record of 18-1 and he has nine wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Zak Cummings by unanimous decision, Nordine Taleb by unanimous decision, Gunnar Nelson by KO, Mike Perry by unanimous decision, and Neil Magny by KO; while losing to Li Jingliang by KO. Ponzinibbio has been a pro since 2008 and he has 15 wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has 15 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Baeza 4.64/ Ponzinibbio 4.21
Striking Accuracy: Baeza 55% / Ponzinibbio 40%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Baeza 3.89/ Ponzinibbio 4.05
Defense: Baeza 50% / Ponzinibbio 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Baeza 0.80/ Ponzinibbio 0.52
Takedown Accuracy: Baeza 40% / Ponzinibbio 44%
Takedowns defended: Baeza 100% / Ponzinibbio 60%
Submission average: Baeza 1.2/ Ponzinibbio 0.0
UFC Picks
Baeza is undefeated in his career and he is getting some respect from the oddsmakers, as the odds on this fight are a pick. The rounds total at BookMaker is listed at 1.5 with the over at -160. I will make two plays in this one and take Baeza and the rounds to go over the total.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Card & Odds
Heavyweight: Augusto Sakai +100 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -130
Heavyweight: Walt Harris +139 vs. Marcin Tybura -175
Heavyweight: Ilir Latifi +158 vs. Tanner Boser -200
Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio -115 vs. Miguel Baeza -115
Women's Flyweight: Maryna Moroz +127 vs. Manon Fiorot -160
Featherweight: Youssef Zalal +146 vs. Sean Woodson -185
Lightweight: Alan Patrick +228 vs. Mason Jones -300
Women's Flyweight: Montana De La Rosa -270 vs. Ariane Lipski +207
Middleweight: Antonio Arroyo +194 vs. Tom Breese -250
Lightweight: Claudio Puelles +161 vs. Jordan Leavitt -205
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze -150 vs. Laureano Staropoli +120
Middleweight: Gregory Rodrigues +127 vs. Dusko Todorovic -160
Welterweight: Francisco Trinaldo +194 vs. Muslim Salikhov -250
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