Light heavyweight veteran Misha Cirkunov (15-5, 4 KOs, 9 SUBs) will meet prospect Ryan Spann (18-6, 4 KOs, 11 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad on Saturday, March 13, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET. In the main event, welterweight contender Leon Edwards (18-3, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) squares off against the rising Belal Muhammad (18-3, 4 KOs, 1 SUB) in a pivotal divisional matchup. Let's take a close look at the Cirkunov vs. Spann odds and break down your best UFC betting options at the online sportsbook.
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The Stakes
Ryan Spann is coming off his first UFC loss in five fights. In a prospect vs. prospect matchup against Johnny Walker, the 29-year old was knocked out in the first round. That was a tough loss, but Spann is still one of the more promising 205ers in the division. How he bounces back against a solid veteran in Misha Cirkunov will tell us a lot about his prospects in a weight class that could really use young talent. Cirkunov was once the "young talent" in Spann's position, but losses in three of his past five has shown us a clear ceiling for the 34-year old. Perhaps he has another level to get to, or maybe he can carve out a role as a top gatekeeper.
Misha Cirkunov (15-5, 4 KOs, 9 SUBs)
The past few years have not been kind to Cirkunov, as he's had to deal with losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Glover Teixeira and Johnny Walker. His only wins during that time have come against Patrick Cummins and Jimmy Crute, but to his credit they were both pretty slick submissions. The losses have shown us that Cirkunov is vulnerable against powerful strikers and his chin might be cracking - he was knocked out in all those aforementioned defeats. What do his wins tell us? Nothing new: we already knew he was a dangerous submission grappler.
With his background in judo and BJJ, Cirkunov is at his best in grappling-heavy encounters. Opponents need to fear his strength on the mat - see how he popped Alex Nicholson's jaw with a neck crank. While he's not lost on the feet, the Latvian is slow to recover under heavy fire and can be overwhelmed by explosive kickboxers. It's doubtful that he'll ever be able to rely on his striking for wins. So again, this fight all comes down to whether he can get in close.
Ryan Spann (18-6, 4 KOs, 11 SUBs)
After graduating from Dana White's Contender series, Spann roared out the gate with four straight wins: a decision over Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira, a knockout win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, a submission over Devin Clark and a decision against Sam Alvey. Obviously, the UFC was bringing him along slowly, as it's questionable whether Oliveira and Nogueira still belong in the promotion. Beating Devin Clark as nice, but a split decision win over a creaky Sam Alvey is somewhat disappointing for a bright prospect. Getting knocked out by Walker just showed that he still has a ways to go.
Spann obviously has talent - he is a good athlete that can do a bit of everything. The question is whether he can put it all together in becoming a complete fighter. What he's doing now works against lower level guys, but Cirkunov isn't that.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Cirkunov 4.18 / Spann 3.25
Striking accuracy: Cirkunov 52% / Spann 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Cirkunov 2.89 / Spann 3.07
Striking defense: Cirkunov 62% / Spann 50%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Cirkunov 4.42 / Spann 1.15
Takedown accuracy: Cirkunov 57% / Spann 30%
Takedown defense: Cirkunov 71% / Spann 60%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Cirkunov 2.41 / Spann 1.53
UFC Picks
Spann is a solid fighter, but we don't think he's shown the fight IQ to win this matchup. Cirkunov will likely pin him to the cage and relentless work for takedowns - where Spann will be in real trouble. If that doesn't work, Cirkunov's work rate should likely give him the win on points. Cirkunov is far more experienced against better talent, and won't have to really worry about his chin getting blown up here. His money line is a good value anywhere up to -140.
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Card & Odds
Welterweight: Belal Muhammad +213 vs. Leon Edwards -264
Middleweight: Eryk Anders +150 vs. Darren Stewart -181
Heavyweight: Philipe Lins -107 vs. Ben Rothwell -117
Light Heavyweight: Ryan Spann -102 vs. Misha Cirkunov -122
Bantamweight: Davey Grant +246 vs. Jonathan Martinez -308
Welterweight: Matthew Semelsberger -127 vs. Jason Witt +103
Women's Strawweight: Jinh Yu Frey +150 vs. Gloria de Paula -181
Bantamweight: Ray Rodriguez +235 vs. Rani Yahya -293
Featherweight: Dan Ige -127 vs. Gavin Tucker +103
Women's Flyweight: Cortney Casey +121 vs. JJ Aldrich -145
Featherweight: Marcelo Rojo +203 vs. Charles Jourdain -250
Women's Strawweight: Ashley Yoder +290 vs. Angela Hill -371
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