No. 8 women’s flyweight Viviane Araujo (8-2, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet No. 12 Montana De La Rosa (11-5, 8 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai on Saturday, September 5, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the night is a heavyweight matchup between MMA legend Alistair OVereem (46-18, 24 KOs, 17 SUBs) and prospect knockout artist Agusto Sakai (15-1, 11 KOs). Also on the card is a welterweight feature between high flying Michel Pereira (23-11, 10 KOs, 6 SUBs) and Russian Zelim Imadaev (8-2, 8 KOs). Let’s take a closer look at the matchup between Araujo and De La Rosa and break down your best UFC betting options.
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Viviane Araujo (8-2, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs)
Coming over from Pancrase (yes it’s still around) in 2018, nobody was quite sure what to expect from Araujo. Until that point, the Brazilan had only fought no names in Asia and South America, so it was impossible to say how good she was. Since signing to the UFC, Araujo has not only proven that she belongs, but climbed into the top 10 at 125. Of course, that comes with the caveat that the newest division is still extremely shallow and champion Shevchenko is running laps around everyone in it. Her wins over Talita Bernardo and Alexis Davis were good enough to earn a ranking, but Araujo is coming off a loss to former title challenger Jessica Eye in her most recent outing.
Though Araujo spent most of her career at strawweight, she has opted to face 125-pounders in hopes of being the faster fighter. That worked against Alexis Davis, as Araujo pieced up the veteran with ease. The win earned a shot against Evil Eye, and had Araujo won that contest she likely would have gotten a title shot (and zero chance) against Shevchenko. Instead, Eye was able to bounce back from a shaky first round and outpoint Araujo over rounds 2 and 3. The takeaway from the fight was that Araujo will struggle when pitted against athletic, technical strikers. While she’s comfortable anywhere, the 33-year old doesn’t dominate in any particular area.
Montana De La Rosa (11-5, 8 SUBs)
As a pro since 2014, De La Rosa cut her teeth in regional promotions before facing serious competition in Legacy Fighting Alliance - a feeder league for the UFC. In LFA, De La Rosa shared the cage with uber-prospect Mackenzie Dern and current flyweight contender Cynthia Calvillo. De La Rosa showed poorly in both outings, getting submitted by Dern in just 3 and a half minutes, then getting KO’d by Calvillo her next time out. From there, MDLR took part in the TUF season, beating Ariel Beck and losing to eventual season winner Nicco Montano. Inside the octagon, the 25-year old has put together a 5-1 record, with wins over Rachael Ostovich, Nadia Kassem and most recently, Mara Borella.
The good thing about MDLR is that she shows visible improvements each fight, and is still very young in a sport that needs girls in her weight class. Her striking is getting better, her cardio is excellent, but her best skill by far is her grappling. While MDLR needs to work on her wrestling to force the issue, she is already one of the stronger fighters in the division. That means she’s able to drag most of her opponents to the ground without much technique, although that might not work against a good athlete in Araujo.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Araujo 4.51 / De La Rosa 2.30
Striking accuracy: Araujo 47% / De La Rosa 33%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Araujo 5.20 / De La Rosa 2.80
Striking defense: Araujo 54% / De La Rosa 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Araujo 2.57 / De La Rosa 2.22
Takedown accuracy: Araujo 58% / De La Rosa 33%
Takedown defense: Araujo 100% / De La Rosa 50%
Submission average: Araujo 0.0 / De La Rosa 1.9
UFC Picks
Though De La Rosa might have a higher ceiling than Araujo, the Brazilian’s skillset and experience is a bit more bankable. MDLR relies a lot on takedowns, and Araujo has yet to be put on her back inside the octagon. Conversely, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Brazilian was able to snag a few takedowns of her own and do enough to get a decision.
The other pick we’d consider is the decision prop. Araujo is an excellent finisher, but De La Rosa hasn’t been stopped in six fights. Neither are knockout artists, and they are both skilled enough grapplers that they should be able to defend until the scorecards.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai Card & Odds
Heavyweight: Augusto Sakai +118 vs. Alistair Overeem -142
Light Heavyweight: Ovince Saint Preux +113 vs. Alonzo Menifield -137
Welterweight: Zelim Imadaev -113 vs. Michel Pereira -110
Middleweight: Andre Muniz +119 vs. Bartosz Fabinski -142
Lightweight: Jalin Turner +154 vs. Thiago Moises -186
Bantamweight: Cole Smith +176 vs. Hunter Azure -213
Women's Flyweight: Montana De La Rosa +154 vs. Viviane Araujo -186
Lightweight: Khama Worthy -127 vs. Ottman Azaitar +103
Heavyweight: Alexander Romanov -117 vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -107
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