Undefeated light heavyweight prospect Jamahal Hill (8-0, 4 KOs) will meet Scotland's Paul Craig (14-4, 2 KOs, 12 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland on Saturday, March 20, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 10pm ET. In the main event, No. 7 middleweight Derek Brunson (21-7, 12 KOs, 3 SUBs) squares off against No. 10 Kevin Holland (21-5, 11 KOs, 6 SUBs). Let's take a closer look at the UFC Fight Night odds for Craig vs. Hill and break down your best online betting options.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland Betting
The Stakes
For years now, the light heavyweight was in dire need of young talent. But take a look at the top 15 today, and you'll see how much this division has changed with guys like Aleksandar Rakic, Jiri Pochazka, Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. At the bottom of the rankings sit Paul Craig and Jamahal Hill, No. 14 and No. 15 respectively, who are facing off in hopes of climbing up the ladder. It's Hill that has the hype, being 8-0, but Craig hasn't lost in four straight fights.
Jamahal Hill (8-0, 4 KOs)
One of the better finds on DWCS, Hill was signed to the UFC after a TKO win over Alexander Poppeck in 2019. He immediately kicked off a busy 2020, winning a decision against Darko Stosic in his UFC debut, knocking out Klidson Abreu in one round (a victory that was later overturned due to a marijuana test) and following that up with a TKO of veteran Ovince St. Preux. While beating OSP doesn't mean what it used to, the fact remains that Hill finished one of the most experienced fighters at 205.
It's obvious that Hill is quickly evolving. Against Stosic, the 29-year old showed a solid boxing game and won on points. In his next two fights, Hill showed enough confidence in his striking to sit on his punches and earn finishes. He's getting comfortable with his hands, and is enough of an athlete - he was offered a scholarship to play college basketball - that he might soon become a knockout threat.
Paul Craig (14-4, 2 KOs, 12 SUBs)
After 11 fights inside the octagon, Craig's record stands at an unspectacular 6-4 with 1 draw. That he's even ranked at all speaks to how open the division is at the bottom of the rankings. After a 3-3 start where he lost to Tyson Pedro, Khalil Rountree and Jimmy Crute - and another fight where it took a miracle last second sub to beat Ankalaev - the 33-year old has gained some momentum by finishing three of his last four opponents. Most recently, Craig finished an ancient Shogun Rua in November 2020.
Craig isn't the most athletic fighter, but he does have some solid natural strength. The power doesn't manifest in his striking, but rather in his dangerous grappling game. He's been honing his standup, but blasting through a creaky Rua really doesn't tell us much about where it's at. The fact that Shogun was able to control some of the grappling exchanges really doesn't bode well for Craig either.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Hill 7.90 / Craig 2.40
Striking accuracy: Hill 52% / Craig 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Hill 3.15 / Craig 2.43
Striking defense: Hill 49% / Craig 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Hill 0.00 / Craig 2.11
Takedown defense: Hill - / Craig 26%
Takedown defense: Hill 53% / Craig 55%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Hill 0.0 / Craig 1.5
UFC Picks
You can go by a simple eye test here. Hill is younger, bigger, faster and stronger on the feet. Craig has to get this to the ground to stand a chance of winning, but we really don't see him being able to chase down his opponent. You can go with the safe pick with Hill winning straight up, or you can gamble on his continued evolution and bet that he finishes a fighter that clearly has a lower ceiling.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland Card & Odds
Middleweight: Derek Brunson +141 vs. Kevin Holland -168
Welterweight: Kenan Song +162 vs. Max Griffin -196
Heavyweight: Don'Tale Mayes +170 vs. Tai Tuivasa -206
Bantamweight: Gustavo Lopez +177 vs. Adrian Yanez -215
Women's Strawweight: Montserrat Ruiz +280 vs. Cheyanne Buys -356
Women's Bantamweight: Julija Stoliarenko +287 vs. Julia Avila -366
Lightweight: Leonardo Santos +170 vs. Grant Dawson -206
Flyweight: Bruno Gustavo da Silva +130 vs. JP Buys -157
Lightweight: Brad Riddell +188 vs. Gregor Gillespie -230
Women's Bantamweight: Marion Reneau +165 vs. Macy Chiasson -201
Middleweight: Trevin Giles +113 vs. Roman Dolidze -137
Bantamweight: Jesse Strader +492 vs. Montel Jackson -702
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