Welterweight veteran Rafael Dos Anjos (29-13, 5 KOs, 10 SUBs) will meet No. 7 Paul Felder (17-5, 10 KOs, 1 SUB) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos on Saturday, November 14, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 7pm ET. Also on the card is a fun welterweight bout between striker Abdul Razak Alhassan and Khoas Williams. Let’s let’s break down the headliner and get to your best online betting picks at our online sportsbook.
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Paul Felder (17-5, 10 KOs, 1 SUB)
First off, we give a massive salute to the onions on Felder. “The Irish Dragon” will step into the cage with just a few days' notice and commit to the 155-pound weight limit while he’s at it. The 35-year old must have been in pretty good shape to begin with, but there’s no way Felder was in fight camp. Basically, Felder has three days to cut weight, which is insane when you consider it’s a process that usually takes weeks, sometimes months. But the man is a professional, so we expect him to show up on weight and ready to go.
That leaves the question: what’s he gonna bring in this scrap? Even with a full camp, this wouldn’t be an easy fight for Felder. His aggression could put Dos Anjos on his bicycle, but RDA has to be drooling at the prospect of facing somebody that isn’t an elite wrestler. Best case scenario, Felder comes in tremendous shape and bangs out a win on points. Against good strikers (which RDA is), Felder tends to get into close scraps - like his battles with Barboza and Hooker. Worst case here? Felder gasses out early and eats a steady diet of Muay Thai strikes for his troubles.
Rafael Dos Anjos (29-13, 5 KOs, 10 SUBs)
Could we be witnessing the steady decline of Rafael Dos Anjos? After moving up to welterweight in 2017, the Brazilian vaulted into the top tier with huge wins over Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler. Unfortunately, that led to matchups against Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman - and he was ground into fine powder on back-to-back occasions by elite wrestlers. A bounce back win over Kevin Lee was quickly erased by consecutive defeats to Leon Edwards and Michael Chiesa, bringing his slump to 1-4 in his past five. Note that every one of those guys are very good-to-great wrestlers. You can add Makhachev to that list.
It’s not that RDA can’t wrestle - it’s just not his best skill. The Brazilian is most comfortable on his feet, where he loves to apply pressure and bang away with powerful punch-kick combinations. The problem is when opponents can successfully pressure back, as Dos Anjos is far less effective on his bicycle. Lately, getting him to backpedal seems easier as he enters his late 30s. RDA has always been a very good athlete, but after a long, battle-filled career, it’s plausible that he’s just easier to take down now.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.47 / Felder 3.67
Striking accuracy: Dos Anjos 45% / Felder 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.18 / Felder 3.40
Striking defense: Dos Anjos 62% / Felder 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Dos Anjos 1.82 / Felder 0.25
Takedown accuracy: Dos Anjos 39% / Felder 25%
Takedown defense: Dos Anjos 58% / FElder 61%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Dos Anjos 0.6 / Felder 0.2
UFC Picks
This is just a much, much better matchup for the Brazilian. Not only does he get to face a guy that hasn’t had a training camp, but RDA finally gets to fight another striker. Felder’s gutsy, in-your-face style could cause Dos Anjos some problems, but he doesn’t have the type of explosive power that RDA has trouble with. In this five-rounder, we see Dos Anjos eventually taking control and pulling away for the win.
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos Card & Odds
Lightweight - Paul Felder +162 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos -196
Welterweight - Khaos Williams +191 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -235
Bantamweight - Jose Alberto Quinonez +103 vs. Louis Smolka -127
Women’s Strawweight - Cory McKenna +184 vs. Kay Hansen -225
Women’s Strawweight - Ashley Yoder +108 vs. Miranda Granger -132
Middleweight - Saparbek Safarov +228 vs. Julian Marquez -284
Middleweight - Antonio Arroyo +134 vs. Eryk Anders -162
Heavyweight - Roque Martinez +191 vs. Don’Tale Mayes -235
Welterweight - Rhys McKee +158 vs. Alex Morono -191
Bantamweight - Geraldo de Freitas +138 vs. Tony Gravely -166
Women's Strawweight - Randa Markos +154 vs. Kanako Murata -186
Catchweight - Sean Strickland -109 vs. Brendan Allen -115
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