Former featherweight contender Renato "Moicano" Carneiro (14-3, 7 SUBs) will move up to lightweight to meet prospect Rafael Fiziev (8-1, 5 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis on Saturday, November 28, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 10pm ET. In the main event, heavyweight title contender Curtis Blaydes (14-2, 10 KOs) meets knockout artist Derrick Lewis (24-7, 19 KOs) in an important divisional contest. Let’s take a look at the lightweight feature between Moicano and Fiziev and break down your best online betting options.
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Renato "Moicano" Carneiro (14-3, 7 SUBs)
It wasn’t long ago that Moicano was a dark horse title contender at 145 pounds. At one point, the Brazilian was 6-1 inside the octagon, with wins over Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson. More impressive was the fact that the lone loss was nearly a win against Brian Ortega, who was losing on the scorecards before scoring a flash submission late in the last round. However, all his momentum deflated when he was knocked by Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie in back to back fights. Thrown completely down the ladder, Moicano jumped up to lightweight, where he promptly pulled off a quick submission win against Damir Hadzovic.
Time will tell how successful Moicano can be at 155. He wasn’t a huge featherweight to begin with, but at 5’11" he has solid size for a lightweight. The submission win over Hadzovic is interesting, simply because it could signal a return to Moicano’s roots. The Brazilian has a stellar BJJ background, but most of his time in the UFC has been marked by standup battles - which is fine seeing that he outstruck Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson. If he’s found a way to build grappling off his striking and vice versa, we could be looking at a dangerous dude in a shark tank division. At 31, Moicano is still in his prime.
Rafael Fiziev (8-1, 5 KOs, 1 SUB)
There aren’t many fighters from Kyrgyzstan in the UFC, and Fiziev has done a fine job representing a little known country. After putting together a 6-0 record in regional competition (including stints in Road FC and Titan FC), Fiziev was brought over to the UFC. His debut was not a successful one, as the Phuket Top Team product was knocked out by a spinning backfist from Magomed Mustafaev in less than 90 seconds. He’s since righted the ship, with wins over Alex White and most recently Marc Diakiese. The 27-year old is still young in both age and career, so perhaps there are still layers to discover.
Fiziev has always been a fun prospect because of a punishing Muay Thai game. He’s a stocky dude at 5'8", and five of his eight pro wins came by way of knockout. The caveat there is that all those KOs came in regional competition, and he’s yet to show that killshot swagger even in the lower rungs of the UFC lightweight division. Still, it’s no small feat to beat Marc Diakiese in a standup match, and he did show a well-rounded MMA game in his decision win over Alex White. It’s obvious that Fiziev is’t going to be an easy out for anyone, though it remains to be seen whether he can level up enough to sniff the top 10.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Carneiro 5.49 / Fiziev 4.61
Striking accuracy: Carneiro 46% / Fiziev 56%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Carneiro 3.67 / Fiziev 4.23
Striking defense: Carneiro 66% / Fiziev 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Carneiro 1.34 / Fiziev 0.95
Takedown accuracy: Carneiro 58% / Fiziev 66%
Takedown defense: Carneiro 76% / Fiziev 100%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Carneiro 0.6 / Fiziev 0.0
UFC Picks
Moicano’s losses to Aldo and TKZ show that the Brazilian has trouble against fast counter strikers and heavy hitters. Fiziev likes to get off first, but his power is going to give Moicano a lot to think about. He’s the type of guy that doesn’t give an inch, and eventually we see him doing the more significant damage here. It’s a competitive fight at nearly pick’em odds, but Fiziev is a solid pick.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Card & Odds
Heavyweight - Derrick Lewis +303 vs. Curtis Blaydes -390
Light Heavyweight - Devin Clark +113 vs. Anthony Smith -137
Welterweight - Takashi Sato +130 vs. Miguel Baeza -157
Bantamweight - Luke Sanders -137 vs. Nate Maness +113
Featherweight - Jonathan Pearce +243 vs. Kai Kamaka -303
Women’s Bantamweight - Ashlee Evans-Smith -127 vs. Norma Dumont +103
Bantamweight - Anderson dos Santos +134 vs. Martin Day -162
Heavyweight - Parker Porter +177 vs. Josh Parisian -215
Women’s Flyweight - Rachael Ostovich +114 vs. Gina Mazany -138
Flyweight - Malcolm Gordon +260 vs. Su Mudaerji -327
Featherweight - Bill Algeo +143 vs. Spike Carlyle -171
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