No. 5 women’s flyweight Roxanne Modafferi (24-16, 4 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet No. 6 Lauren Murphy (12-4, 8 KOs) at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov on Saturday, June 20, 2020, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The card airs live on ESPN+ starting at 9pm ET.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Roxanne Modafferi (24-16, 4 KOs, 5 SUBs)
There aren’t many women fighters in the UFC that has the same breadth of experience as Roxanne Modafferi. At 37 years old, Modafferi has been fighting professionally since 2003, with stints in tiny fight cards and defunct promotions like Strikeforce and KOTC. She even made a UFC appearance in 2013 at The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale, but a loss to Raquel Pennington sent her back to Invicta.
Can we call Modafferi a journeywoman? Perhaps, as she’s fought almost every mid-tier woman in her weight class at some point or another. That’s also earned solid wins over names like Andrea “KGB” Lee, Antonina Shevchenko and most recently, Maycee Barber. That win over Barber this past January was huge, as Barger came into the matchup as a hot, undefeated prospect. In this sport, experience can do a lot against raw talent.
Modafferi isn’t going to be fighting for the title anytime soon, but she can become one of the division’s upper tier gatekeepers if she strings together a few wins. Who knows, in a division that’s desperate for warm bodies to feed to champion Valentina Shevchenko, Modafferi could emerge as a dark horse contender.
Lauren Murphy (12-4, 8 KOs)
Like Modafferi, Murphy is coming off a big win over a hot prospect. In her last outing, Murphy was able to eke by Andrea Lee with a split decision, giving her back-to-back wins for the first time ever inside the octagon. It was an excellent followup to her TKO win over Mara Romero Borella.
Murphy made her UFC debut in 2013 as an undefeated hotshot in her own right. But she’s only managed a .500 so far. Peep those losses: Liz Carmouche, Sara McMann, Katlyn Chookagian and Sijara Eubanks. Those aren’t championship-level fighters, but they are or were considered upper-tier women when Murphy fought them. That shows that Murphy has a clear ceiling, and it’s doubtful that she has more levels to reach at 36 years old.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Modafferi 3.06 / Murphy 3.76
Striking accuracy: Modafferi 31% / Murphy 38%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Modafferi 4.80 / Murphy 4.02
Defense: Modafferi 54% / Murphy 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Modafferi 1.45 / Murphy 1.03
Takedown accuracy: Modafferi 21% / Murphy 32%
Takedowns defended: Modafferi 41% / Murphy 66%
Submission average: Modafferi 0.1 / Murphy 0.0
UFC Picks
This one figures to be a grind, as both women have similar profiles as unathletic fighters that use toughness and grit to win decisions. Modafferi is the slight -150 favorite here, largely due to her experience. But honestly, this is one that could go either way, so we’d probably stay away from the money lines altogether. If you want to play it safe, go with the fight goes to decision prop or the rounds over. Murphy has yet to be finished in 16 pro fights, and she does not have the type of overwhelming power to knock out or submit Modafferi.
Card (Subject to Change) - ESPN+
Heavyweight - Curtis Blaydes -431 vs. Alexander Volkov +310
Women’s bantamweight - Marion Renau +124 vs. Raquel Pennington -155
Featherweight - Josh Emmett +115 vs. Shane Burgos -145
Women’s flyweight - Roxanne Modafferi -124 vs. Lauren Murphy +106
Welterweight - Lyman Good +100 vs. Belal Muhammaad -130
Women’s flyweight - Gillian Robertson -125 vs. Cortney Casey -105
Women’s strawweight - Brianna Van Buren -218 vs. Tecia Torres +170
Middleweight - Marc-Andre Barriualt +103 vs. Oskar Piechota -133
Lightweight - Frank Camacho -104 vs. Matt Frevola -126
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