UFC Fight Night - Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov Odds

Sergei Pavlovich is favored against Alexander Volkov at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov on Saturday, June 22 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This event is one of 11 fights on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+. Pavlovich is 18-2 in his career, including 6-2 in the UFC, while Volkov is 37-10 in his career, including 11-4 in the UFC. There are a total of 11 fights, all on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov. Let’s look at the bout between Pavlovich and Volkov and UFC predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov takes place at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday, June 22 with 11 fights, all on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov Betting

Sergei Pavlovich (18-2, 6-2 UFC)

Pavlovich came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has six wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Marcelo Golm by KO, Maurice Greene by TKO, Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, Derrick Lewis by TKO, Tai Tuivasa by KO, and Curtis Blaydes by TKO; while losing to Alistair Overeem by TKO and Tom Aspinall by KO. Pavlovich has been a pro since 2014 and he has 15 wins by TKO/KO and three by decision. He has 15 first round finishes.

Alexander Volkov (37-10, 11-4 UFC)

Volkov came into the UFC with a record of 26-6 and he has 11 wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has four wins and two losses. He defeated Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision, Jairzinho Rozenstruik by TKO, Alexander Romanov by TKO, and Tai Tuivasa by Ezekiel choke submission; while losing to Ciryl Gane by unanimous decision and Tom Aspinall by straight armbar submission. Volkov has been a pro since 2009 and he has 24 wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has 17 first round finishes.

Volkov said to the media that regardless of who wins this fight it is a win for Russian fighters. “Imagine someone wins and becomes a contender for the belt, most likely. A win-win for Russian fighters. We're depriving a foreigner of that chance. The UFC has done us a favor, regardless of whether Sergei or I win. Someone will be back in the title race. I think the league has a goal to have a Russian fighter at the top and next to the belt.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Pavlovich 8.21 /Volkov 5.10

Striking Accuracy: Pavlovich 48% /Volkov 57%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Pavlovich 4.61/Volkov 3.00

Defense: Pavlovich 55% /Volkov 54%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Pavlovich 0.00/Volkov 0.49

Takedown Accuracy: Pavlovich 0%/Volkov 63%

Takedowns defended: Pavlovich 75%/Volkov 73%

Submission average: Pavlovich 0.0/Volkov 0.2

UFC Picks

This fight should be exciting for as long as it lasts. Pavlovich is going to be coming forward fast and furious from the moment this fight begins. Volkov is going to have to come up with some sort of plan to defend or try and work a takedown. Volkov is the taller fighter but he doesn’t have the reach advantage. The best option for Volkov would be to try and get this fight to the mat or to simply try and wear down Pavlovich. The longer this fight goes the better it is for Volkov.

If you look at the numbers the edge is definitely with Pavlovich. He averages 8.21 strikes per minute, while Alexander Volkov hits 5.10 significant strikes per minute. Pavlovich isn’t quite as accurate as Volkov but his defense is better. We know that Volkov has the edge on the mat, but taking down Pavlovich hasn’t been easy, as Pavlovich has blocked 75% of takedown attempts.

Pavlovich is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite in UFC odds and while I lean toward Pavlovich, the price is a little steep for me. The rounds are listed at 1.5 with the under at -150 in UFC betting odds. I just can’t see a scenario where Volkov is able to avoid a striking battle. One way or the other this fight should end in a finish, so I’ll go under the rounds total.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov Card & Odds

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