Stephen Thompson is favored against Belal Muhammad at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus on Saturday, December 18 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 14 fights on ESPN+. Thompson is 16-5-1 in his career, while Muhammad is 19-3 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus. Let’s look at the bout between Thompson and Muhammad and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, December 18 with 14 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus Betting
Stephen Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC)
Thompson came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has 11 wins, five losses, and one draw in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision, Vicente Luque by unanimous decision, and Geoff Neal by unanimous decision; while losing to Darren Till by unanimous decision, Anthony Pettis by KO, and Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision. Thompson has been a pro since 2010 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Thompson said this to lowkickmma.com about his upcoming fight against Muhammad, “I feel like I do have the height and reach (advantage) but again I’ve seen him fight taller and longer guys and he works them. The guy has got a work ethic and spirit like no other. I mean, he’s relentless, he comes forward, he wrestles, and he’s got amazing cardio. I mean, you saw his wrestling against Demian Maia. I’ve never seen that before. I’ve never seen anybody defend Demian Maia like he did. He’s good everywhere. He’s a really tough guy.
So I do believe that at some point he’s going to be shooting, obviously. He’s done some work recently with Gilbert Burns, so he might take a note out of Gilbert Burns’ book and go straight in for the takedown but I’m ready for it.”
Belal Muhammad (19-3, 10-3 UFC)
Muhammad came into the UFC with a record of 9-0 and he has 10 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Curtis Millender by unanimous decision, Takashi Sato by rear-naked choke submission, Lyman Good by unanimous decision, Dhiego Lima by unanimous decision, and Demian Maia by unanimous decision; while losing to Geoff Neal by unanimous decision. Muhammad has been a pro since 2012 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has one first round finish.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Thompson 4.06 / Muhammad 4.61
Striking Accuracy: Thompson 43% / Muhammad 42%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Thompson 2.75 / Muhammad 3.80
Defense: Thompson 58% / Muhammad 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Thompson 0.30 / Muhammad 1.80
Takedown Accuracy: Thompson 45% / Muhammad 28%
Takedowns defended: Thompson 73% / Muhammad 91%
Submission average: Thompson 0.0 / Muhammad 0.2
UFC Picks
Thompson is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite in this fight and I think the price is too high. I have this fight as a toss-up so I see value in taking Muhammad. I have a lot of respect for Thompson but I don’t see him as a 2-1 favorite against a fighter in Muhammad who has been very good in the UFC. I will take Muhammad simply as a value play. I also can’t see anything other than this fight going to a decision. Neither fighter has a lot of power, as Thompson has only finished eight of his 16 fights and Muhammad has just five finishes. And keep in mind that those numbers include fights before each made it into the UFC. I don’t like laying big prices, but I think going over the 2.5 rounds is a good bet.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus Card & Odds
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 12/18 |
Derrick Lewis |
+105 |
| Chris Daukaus |
-135 |
| 12/18 |
Belal Muhammad |
+183 |
| Stephen Thompson |
-235 |
| 12/18 |
Darren Elkins |
+165 |
| Cub Swanson |
-210 |
| 12/18 |
Angela Hill |
+264 |
| Amanda Lemos |
-355 |
| 12/18 |
Diego Ferreira |
+161 |
| Mateusz Gamrot |
-205 |
| 12/18 |
Josh Parisian |
+158 |
| Don Tale Mayes |
-200 |
| 12/18 |
Raphael Assuncao |
+214 |
| Ricky Simon |
-280 |
| 12/18 |
Matt Sayles |
-110 |
| Jordan Leavitt |
-120 |
| 12/18 |
Harry Hunsucker |
+254 |
| Justin Tafa |
-340 |
| 12/18 |
Andre Ewell |
+161 |
| Charles Jourdain |
-205 |
| 12/18 |
Sijara Eubanks |
-175 |
| Melissa Gatto |
+139 |
| 12/18 |
Dustin Stoltzfus |
+179 |
| Gerald Meerschaert |
-230 |
| 12/18 |
Macy Chiasson |
+150 |
| Raquel Pennington |
-190 |
| 12/18 |
Victor Henry |
+241 |
| Raoni Barcelos |
-320 |
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